Good Saturday to one and all. We have rounds of showers and thunderstorms rumbling across the state this weekend and some could be severe. This continues to be part of the stormy pattern that is ready to lead us into a MUCH cooler Kentucky Derby week. As we get into the week, things are looking more and more unsettled.

Let’s start with today’s storms and roll forward. We have an increasing threat for lines of strong to severe storms to develop and sweep eastward across the state. Damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes will be possible. The best chance comes later this afternoon into the evening.

I will have your storm tracking toys in a bit.

Additional storms will rumble through tonight and Sunday, and some of those could also be strong. Heavy rainfall is a good bet during this time with local high water issues possible.

Much cooler air works in for Monday with highs only in the low 60s. A southern system tries to bring some rain back in here for Tuesday…

GFS

That’s followed up by a very ugly setup for the second half of the week. One that threatens to hang into the start of Kentucky Derby Weekend. A big push of chilly air dives into the eastern part of the county with a slow moving cutoff low forming around us. The GFS shows some nasty and chilly weather from late Wednesday through Saturday…

GFS

The European Model also develops a huge cutoff low on top of the region with a big storm off the east coast…

Euro

That’s some very chilly air showing up with temps well below normal…

Euro 2

The same run of the European Model keeps this upper level low JUST to our east for Kentucky Derby Saturday…

Euro 3

That is remarkably good agreement among the GFS and European Models, and shows EXACTLY what the Ensembles have been hinting at for the past week or so. This also fits the pattern I’ve been talking about for the past few weeks… A very stormy and wet setup leading us into a cool start to May.

Let’s get back to tracking today’s storm threat…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current Watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

I’ll shoot you an update later today. Make it a great day and take care.