Good Monday to one and all. Rain is on the way back into the state, as our soggy spring pattern rolls on. The rain comes at us in waves early this week, then again late in the week. I’ll take a look at that, and we will focus on what may come our way this summer and beyond.

Today starts with a touch of frost in a few spots and ends with rain increasing from west to east through the evening. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible tonight into Tuesday with locally heavy rain at times.

The rain takes a break from late Wednesday into Thursday, but crashes back in Friday and Saturday…

Euro

The European Model is adamant about keeping a closed upper level low on top of this this weekend into early next week. If that’s the case, unsettled weather will be a good bet. Given the pattern of the past month, there’s no reason to argue with that potential.

What about the summer ahead? The current computer based analogs for the summer ahead…

Analogs

We have talked a lot about how stable the overall pattern has been for the past several yeas, and look at what show up, each of the past 2 summers. We know how each of those turned out… wetter than normal with normal to below normal temps.

2003, 1998 and 1992 were all very wet and cooler than normal.

1983 bucked the trend and was very dry and hot with 100 degree heat.

Given the current analogs and trends, the odds seemed to be for another wet summer without much heat. I tend to lean that way, but we will need to watch for some real deal late summer heat building in.

The wild card in all this is the transition from our super El Nino to a La Nina…

JMA 2

Many of the models are forecasting a moderate La Nina to develop for the fall and winter months. You can see that well on this map…

JMA 1

In a normal La Nina, the waters along the west coast of North America usually turn cool, as well. The model above is forecasting that water to remain warmer than normal, similar to what we have seen in the past 3 winters. If a moderate La Nina develops and the water off the west coast stays warmer than normal… that will be something we have not seen in modern recorded history. This could be another fall and winter without a true analog to match.

Make it a great Monday and take care.