Good Monday to one and all. Rain is on the way back into the state, as our soggy spring pattern rolls on. The rain comes at us in waves early this week, then again late in the week. I’ll take a look at that, and we will focus on what may come our way this summer and beyond.
Today starts with a touch of frost in a few spots and ends with rain increasing from west to east through the evening. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible tonight into Tuesday with locally heavy rain at times.
The rain takes a break from late Wednesday into Thursday, but crashes back in Friday and Saturday…
The European Model is adamant about keeping a closed upper level low on top of this this weekend into early next week. If that’s the case, unsettled weather will be a good bet. Given the pattern of the past month, there’s no reason to argue with that potential.
What about the summer ahead? The current computer based analogs for the summer ahead…
We have talked a lot about how stable the overall pattern has been for the past several yeas, and look at what show up, each of the past 2 summers. We know how each of those turned out… wetter than normal with normal to below normal temps.
2003, 1998 and 1992 were all very wet and cooler than normal.
1983 bucked the trend and was very dry and hot with 100 degree heat.
Given the current analogs and trends, the odds seemed to be for another wet summer without much heat. I tend to lean that way, but we will need to watch for some real deal late summer heat building in.
The wild card in all this is the transition from our super El Nino to a La Nina…
Many of the models are forecasting a moderate La Nina to develop for the fall and winter months. You can see that well on this map…
In a normal La Nina, the waters along the west coast of North America usually turn cool, as well. The model above is forecasting that water to remain warmer than normal, similar to what we have seen in the past 3 winters. If a moderate La Nina develops and the water off the west coast stays warmer than normal… that will be something we have not seen in modern recorded history. This could be another fall and winter without a true analog to match.
Make it a great Monday and take care.
I’m writing it on my calendar. Remember what Chris Bailey said back in May! 🙂
Definitely a tale of two worlds..lol..while it’s been wet and cool in ky..here in southern tn.and northern GA. Just the opposite!! We are DRY and in a moderate drought in spots already..yards are DRY and crispy in spots and I’m having to water my garden..it’s a continuation from winter.
I’ve noticed that, while GA can have very wet periods, it seems like they get a lot of drought there. I wonder why? I mean, based on location, I would think it would be super wet there. Does this have something to do with the Bermuda High?
Not even lunch and the rain is already here. Ugh, was banking on the “west to east though the evening” discussed here.
Oh great, another summer where it’s “cooler” because it’s 4 degrees below normal but the dew point is so high that you can’t tell for all practical purposes and thus it doesn’t matter in the least. Double ugh.
How about a drier air with high temp summer for a change?
I think Hamlin had to do an ambulance run down to Nashville to pick up Zach Mettenburger.
Nah, had to drive Jose Bautista to the nearest trauma center from Arlington. 😉
Speaking of El Nino/La Nina, it’s still cooler here than it was on Christmas Eve and it’s not even close.
Thanks for the very interesting update, Chris.
We sure do appreciate all your work.
Goodness Chris! WAs hoping for some better news on the rain front and the whole summer thing but I guess we will take what we can get! Anyway, today has been dry, at least here, so we can get one of the two yards mowed. Still hoping that we can get better summer weather than it looks like right now. Have a great rest of your Monday ev eryone, and thanks Chris, for all you do.