Major Blast Of Winter On The Way

Good Wednesday everyone. It’s a wet day across the bluegrass state and we may even hear some rumbles of thunder before all is said and done. The touch of March weather is about to give way to a heck of a blast of winter over the next several days as things continue to look more and more wintry as we head into Thursday and Friday. Buckle those seatbelts!

Low pressure is working across the region today and this system will continue to pump up the moisture. Heavy rains of 1″ to as much as 2″ will be possible through Tonight. There’s even enough instability for a few thundershowers to develop as our temps make a run into the 50s for some areas. Winds may gust up as the low works through here.

All your tracking tools now have their own home at the top of the page. Radars, current condition maps and weather cams have the entire state covered. Just click the tabs up top to check out what’s going on. You can also upload weather pics for the world to see. By the way, just click the banner to get back to the main page. We still have a few bugs to work out and that includes email notification.

The big change comes our way on Thursday as an arctic front swings through here. This is going to be a wild day of weather as potent upper low swings eastward across the Ohio Valley. The GFS is finally up to snuff with this bad boy. Check this out…

That’s a ton of energy and lift working through here. Those little disturbances rotating around the closed low will all act to keep the flakes flying. Look at how much wetter and colder that same run of the GFS is…

The NAM looks almost identical to the GFS with the upper level closed low. It’s even colder and also shows plenty of moisture hanging around for a long time…

What does all that mean for the actual weather? Here’s a breakdown…

- The arctic front moves quickly from west to east Thursday, reaching eastern Kentucky by early evening. A few rain showers will be ahead of the front, but the majority of the precipitation falls behind the boundary as snow.

- Temps will spike toward 50 degrees ahead of the arctic front and drop some 20-25 degrees within an hour or two of the front passing through where you live.

- An intense band of snow is likely behind this front and should increase in coverage as it works eastward into Thursday evening. This may cause some travel issues.

- Widespread light snow and snow squalls will then kick in Thursday night and carry us through Friday and likely into early Saturday. I fully expect accumulating snow for most of the state, with this likely having a high impact on road conditions. How much snow? Not for sure just yet… but it does have a 1″-3″ look to it with the possibility of more for some areas. That’s not my forecast just yet… just some thoughts. I will have a first call for snowfall map out later today.

- Winds are going to be a major factor as gusts hit 30mph or greater. The feel like temps may go below zero at times Thursday night and Friday.

- Actual temps will plummet into the teens Thursday night and then struggle to get out of the low 20s Friday. Some areas may not get much past 20 for highs. We’re back into the low and mid teens by Saturday morning.

- A clipper is likely to move in late Saturday into Sunday and may have a swath of accumulating snow with it. We will have to see exactly where that sets up.

This is pretty much following the script I put out there several days ago and that’s always good to see. I will update my thoughts as we get closer to the blast of winter and things become just a touch clearer. I don’t anticipate very many changes. ;)

Updates coming later today, so check back. Have a great Wednesday and take care.


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100 Responses to Major Blast Of Winter On The Way

  1. matihari38 says:

    “Advice is like snow – the softer it falls, the longer it dwells upon, and the deeper in sinks into the mind.”

    I really enjoyed reading this blog. You have made me a happy woman this early morning.

  2. Strummer says:

    As always, Chris, thanks so much for your update! *Sigh* Being a warm weather lover, admittedly it is not what I wanted to hear, but I am sure that it will make many folks happy when they visit this site and read what we have coming! I wonder how much the famed “Dome” will impact snow totals around the Lexington area? I guess we will soon find out!

    Hope that everyone stays warm and safe in the coming days as Winter comes for her visit. Chris, thank you for all that you do for us! Your efforts are greatly appreciated and this blog is truly a wonderful treasure for anyone interested in the weather.

    Have a good day, everyone!

  3. Rodney says:

    Love the new setup on the blog! Thanks for all you do, Chris! I come here every day to get the weather forecast. You make the guys on tv look bad! ;)

  4. Char says:

    Thanks Chris!

  5. Karla says:

    I can’t wait! I so hope this gives us a big big big snow! I have waited and whined since November for snow and after two very sad attempts at snow we have had little to nothing! I WANT MY SNOW! haha Thanks Chris!

  6. Jeanette says:

    Just….lovely. :) Thanks Chris. Looks like the regs on the weather chat will be back online this week!

  7. Kim says:

    I like your forecast! My children are ready to sleigh ride!

  8. james says:

    Chris my man, you called this one right several days ago. Others were saying rain and warmer temps with maybe some back side flurries, but now they have had to change their tune. Looking forward to it.

  9. Dawn says:

    YAY!!!!!! Snow!!!!!!

  10. pattyVersailles says:

    Remember all! Don’t forget the bread and milk!! LOL!

  11. Dara says:

    Once again you nailed it and hopefully some of the haters are eating their words like a big old bowl of snow cream….lets just hope they got some of the yellow kind!!

  12. Momom says:

    I like the banner on the 3-day forcast on the right side of the page…still says “chance of snow” for Thursday and even rain still for some areas. Is this accuweather’s? I think most mets can go ahead and jump on the bandwagon at this point. When I told husband the blog info this morning (he is a teacher), he says a local met (no initials being mentioend) says rain only and 50 still as of yesterday….big debate at the school about whether a snow day will be here for Friday.

  13. JJTeach says:

    This is so exciting Chris! I cannot wait to see the wild weather changes in store for the state tomorrow. A snow day for a lot of counties is looking more and more likely on Friday. I’m crossing my fingers for it so hard I’m thinking I may break a knuckle!!!!

    Thanks again for all you do. You really are the best forecaster there is out there. There’s just no doubt about it.

  14. Local met here is giving about 1/2 inch of snow for tomorrow. That’s an improvement because he wasn’t forecasting any snow just a couple of days ago. He also mentioned briefly, the dreaded ice word for Tuesday. I really hope he changes that one. Thanks Chris for all you do.

  15. MarkLex says:

    I hate boring weather so I’m glad something is finally going to happen to change things up a bit : D

    Bubba, last post you said “even northern KY” as if that was a shock that even they haven’t seen snow. I thought it was funny you said that seeing as how it’s been pretty snowless for *most* areas in the eastern US. Hopefully (if you like snow) that will gradually change.

  16. WXman says:

    I just hope people take it easy tomorrow afternoon on their way home. On the 2nd, those snow showers created a nightmare on the roads because people didn’t slow down. Police were responding to crashes every 5 minutes, literally. Hopefully tomorrow will be a different story. Perhaps if LMK actually issues the advisory BEFORE the snow this time, people will be more inclined to pay attention. Who knows.

    • BlizzardTim says:

      They all should have advisories out…I see NWS in Charleston isnt taking any chances this time around!! they have issued a Winter Weather Advisories for impact…

      NWS in JKL has SPecial Weather Statement for IMPACT, and is saying 1-3″ is possible in some areas..this could be DE-JA-VU of last week….so drivers be aware of the big change tomorrow coming….

    • WXman says:

      I would like to adjust my comments…

      After looking over the latest model data, including the 12Z NAM which is coming in right now, I do NOT think that travel tomorrow will be impacted. Surface temps (remember folks, we live on the ground, not in the clouds) do not appear to go below freezing until late Thursday night. Therefore, the roadways should be fine tomorrow.

      It is the overnight period into Friday morning when things will get interesting. I suspect that school closings and delays will be widespread Friday morning.

  17. Danny says:

    NWS out of Louisville did say more than likely they will issue a WWA for tomorrow. I think a covering of snow to as much as 2 maybe 3 inches in isolated spots be especially careful for a risk of flash freezing for tomorrow evening through tomorrow night and into Friday morning on rodeway’s.

    • bjenks says:

      NWS Louisville says possible 3″ in spots. Means I will see 1/2″ at the most. This is a tease!
      WE NEED A GOOD OLD SCHOOL STORM!!!!

      Think Snow!

  18. BubbaG says:

    All things constant, the timing of Thurdsay will mean the difference between the usual accidents to something worse. The quick freeze could surprise folks, since left for work- rain and then 4pm to 7pm- wreck mania.

    Sometimes, the wind helps negate the ice factor, but if the moisture continues and transitions to sudden freezing- could be a crash derby out there. As mentioned by many, these little snows tend to be a lot more road dangerous than medium to big events.

  19. WXman says:

    The heavy rain claims it’s first victim of the day.. The Dept. of Highways office in Flemingsburg is being closed and employees are being sent home due to water flooding the building from a failure on the roof. They are moving expensive electronics and computer servers to try and save them from what I understand.

  20. Bob says:

    I see that other weather websites are getting on the bandwagon. Nice. I can’t read any of these maps yet so I need some help. What time should all of this snow hit Floyd County. I have two meetings tomorrow evening and I’m a horrible driver on snow and ice… Any help would be appreciated.

  21. c-BIV says:

    NWS out of Louisville doesn’t seem to think there will be much to this system at all….as of right now, there thinking is LESS THAN 1″ for S. Ind & N. Central Kentucky.

  22. MarkLex says:

    I still find it ODD with all of the technological advances over the years, that back in the day when snow was forecast, they usually got it right. Now, it seems NOWcasting is the rule.

    • Wes says:

      And NOWcasting is not good. Especially for those that have to travel and depend on weather forecasts. Chris is the best at this and even if he overhypes a storm…I’d rather be READY than not.

  23. Lillie says:

    Have plans for tonight, but after that…bring on the snow! :) I think everyone at my work needs a snow day (or two or three) also!
    Thanks for all that you do, Chris. I teach science, and I can tell you I would never want to do meteorology! Biology…cells are going to be cells. Geology…rocks are going to be rocks. But weather! Changes all the time, and people want to blame YOU when it does. :) Keep up the great work!

  24. toney says:

    good morning from the town of wayne, wva. it is 10:30am as of this writing and the 1st thing i want to address is some one else using my name to bash chris. 1st of all i go by toney and i will always tell u where i am from which is the town of wayne, wva. i think chris does an excellent job and i think he needs to keep on keeping on. as for the weather models, i like comparing all of them. once again, i did not make those rude comments yesterday that someone else posted and evidently is only trying to start trouble. i wish chris would make it to where you have to give a physical address or your birthdate or something so people could not do this in the future. by far chris is the best met. in the local area. thanks for your time and may god bless.

    • Mike S says:

      One only has to add a picture of oneself as others on the blog have or some other useful icon or unique character…That might help.

      • toney says:

        i do not like to post pictures of myself on the internet for every one else out there to see and then try to figure out who i am. i know i suggested to give a physical address but what i mean by that is to give numbers only…….do not give a street name. chris could also fix it to where everyone that signs up for the comment section has to give a pass word. there are other ways to work around this problem with out having to post a pic of your self on the internet.

  25. Mike S says:

    I saw a recent HPC snowfall probability forecast and had eastern KY in a slight chance for 4″.

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif

  26. Paula T. Lewis Co. says:

    hello everyone. CB, thank you so very much for keeping us up to date on what`s going on in the weather department. i hope my family and i are going to be prepared enough for whatever happens. just hope everyone out there in blog land stays safe and warm and dry out there. think snow everyone. catch y`all later.

  27. Todd says:

    Lex Mets are still down playing the snow for thursday, how many times do these folks get burned until they learn . It’s like they would rather have their teeth pulled before they would mention a real chance of a snow event????

    Chris B. will be the only correct forecast on this event as usual :)

  28. BengalFan says:

    I know a change is coming for this weekend..,,,

    IS WINTER GOING TO STAY AROUND FOR NEXT WEEK, or back to 40′s and 50′s?????????????????????????

    • mitch says:

      we warm right back up. The telconnections once again after this weekend indicate the southeast ridge building again and back to the blowtorch pattern. A -PNA dumps any cold into the west.

  29. Tornadolarkin says:

    This system is really under hyped. Several areas in key could see much more than last week and I think most in cky will see more than an inch

  30. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks, Chris. Looks like a wold ride for sure for the nextseveral days! Right now, we have a temp near 58 with partly sunny skies here in Somerset. Lots of rain earlier, but right now, verry springlike. Kind of scary.

  31. Todd says:

    As far as the long range models go, (NOAA) . The 8 to 14 day temp & Precip maps flop back & forth ever couple days on colder vs warmer than normal for the Ky area. How can you trust or make a forecast based on that much jumping around. In the Ohio valley you just have to take our weather day by day. As the models are proving, it will change every day or so.

  32. vanessa short says:

    what time will it start tomrrow.

  33. Wes says:

    I need an update with snow totals…please!!!!!

  34. Wes says:

    Wonder how long the NWS in Jackson will take to issue a Winter Weather Advisory?

  35. Chelle says:

    winter weather advisory for Jessamine county :)

  36. Pat says:

    WLEX and the BM have just put out an Winter Weather Advisory out for tomorrow. Seems ole BM is just now giving the same totals that Chris has been talking about for the past few days. BM has also now said it will be a VERY cold front moving through Thursday with winds up to 35 mph, seemd like Chris has also been saying that for the past few day.

  37. Danny says:

    What time is the front supposed to come through LEX tomorrrow? I’m going to try to get in a outside run before everything falls apart.

  38. Seth says:

    New nam supports at least 2″-4″ for central and eastern kentucky!

  39. Sadie says:

    Thunder rolling in Williamsburg.

  40. Dara says:

    Can’t wait for a snowfall map….hoping for decent accumulations here in Johnson County and maybe a snow day or two to boot! Hope Jackson gets some advisories out soon but even if they don’t I hope people take this seriously and use common sense when driving out there.

  41. BlizzardTim says:

    strong thunderstorms moving north out of east tn. into se ky. middlesboro,williamsburg,barbourville,corbin areas look out…

    I got a friend in middlesboro who says a strong storm is rolling thru…

  42. BlizzardTim says:

    TIC-TOC TIC-TOC !!! JKL… NWS in louisville, has Winter weather adv. and now NWS in MORRISTOWN TN. has issued Winter Weather Advisories for the TN/ky bordering counties…and Jackson.???? I know lets wait til tomorrow around 5 or 6 then issue them…:P

    • BlizzardTim says:

      well according to chris’s tweet, the winter weather advisory now includes east ky…but their graphs,txt forecasts arent showing it just yet…

  43. Another Chris says:

    Here is what JKL said in their discussion. Looks like they will be issuing a Winter Weather Advisory.

    HEREFORE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE AREA. ASWELL…THE AREA OF OMEGA LINES UP WITH THE BEST MOISTURE SO THINKINGTHERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT…ESPECIALLY IN AN UPSLOPE SITUATION. KEPT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
    1 TO 2 INCH RANGE FOR THE VALLEYS AND UP TO 4 INCHES FOR THE RIDGESABOVE 2000 FEET.

  44. BlizzardTim says:

    getting a Thunderstorm!! right now, skies are very dark,black to the south very loud thunder, and lightning, rain just starting !! and to think this time tomorrow…WINTER WEATHER ADV. with snow?!?!?!…MARCH??…LOL..

  45. Robin says:

    Looks like Laurel Co is now under a weather advisory for Thurs and Fri. I am loving the way it is beginning to look!

  46. Dara says:

    EKY now included in WWA.

  47. James says:

    Thunder and lightening in corbin….wow

  48. disappointed says:

    Thunder in clay at the moment. Chris, is the forecast on the right for various cities your forecast or from another source?

  49. Tab says:

    I’m dying for an update!!!!!!! AND I CANNOT BELIEVE IT IS THUNDERING!!!!

  50. tommy says:

    nws saying 2-4 inches for me here along i70 :P omG!!! its the end of days

  51. Jeanette says:

    Anybody remember Dick Frymire saying this in his forecast for this year?:

    “Caution: If a heavy fog comes in before nightfall and lingers until 11pm on any of the first 10 days in January, the winter will be worse than anticipated”

    :)

  52. Jeanette says:

    ANybody having trouble posting?

    • Jeanette says:

      ok obviously I’m not, lol…

      I guess I can’t talk about D ic k Frymire’s forecast predictions lol.

      • Jeanette says:

        Ok..I’m good now…so.

        Does anybody remember his forecast for this year?:

        “Caution: if a heavy fog comes in before nightfall and lingers until 11PM on any of the first 10 days of January, the winter will be worse than anticipated”

        :)

  53. Poco Mom says:

    So excited for the snow!!!

  54. Mike S says:

    I think CB will have a challenge in posting his snowfall map. I know I am. One just cannot definitively say what areas will get one of those thumping squalls. Any area could see amounts up to 2″ or so. Then again, some may only get a dusting.

    If I had to say, areas from Louisville to E’town will get heaviest amounts initially. Squalls will continue overnight the further east you go but I wonder how much convective activity will be left after the daylight hours?

    • Todd says:

      Good point, It will be like a snow lottery, some will win, most will probably loose? Let’s hope for a more widespread event?

    • Debbie says:

      I live in Bardstown, Mike, so I’m hoping we DO see a fair amount here. I hate being THE BIGGEST snow freak around and always end up with the usual rain/mix and/or Ice Storm….

  55. bring it says:

    I absolutely love snow BUT if we don’t get 4″ or more I’d rather the kids get out longer for summer. Last winter was miserable! We never got over 2″ which is in now was enough to REALLY play in. Then they had to go to school several days into June which really hurt on the camping! So bring on a big one or go away snow!! BTW watching BM so I can laugh at just how wrong he gets it. Chris is and will always be THE MAN;)

  56. Ready4Snow says:

    Going out on a limb an say johnson co and northward will get the heaviest bursts of snow…Predict 4 to 6 for a few of the counties northward…As for the rest of us 1 to 3 if were lucky…

  57. KM says:

    Emmm, where’s the rain and/or the snow? LOL…after some heavy rain this morning, it’s been mostly sunny all afternoon in Morehead. Now it’s cloudy, but that’s it.

  58. bring it says:

    NEW POST PEPS!

  59. Wes says:

    Sorry…I posted something with another tv station…is that against board rules?

    Ok…did anyone see from a local tv station that they were predicting 4 to 10 inches?

  60. Ruth says:

    The NWS in Charleston, WV is waking up. Their latest discussion and HWO says advisories will likely be needed. It’s about time they woke up! Better late than never, though.

    As usual, Chris, you are on the ball with weather updates and such. Thank you for all that you do!

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