Good Wednesday everyone. It’s a wet day across the bluegrass state and we may even hear some rumbles of thunder before all is said and done. The touch of March weather is about to give way to a heck of a blast of winter over the next several days as things continue to look more and more wintry as we head into Thursday and Friday. Buckle those seatbelts!
Low pressure is working across the region today and this system will continue to pump up the moisture. Heavy rains of 1″ to as much as 2″ will be possible through Tonight. There’s even enough instability for a few thundershowers to develop as our temps make a run into the 50s for some areas. Winds may gust up as the low works through here.
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The big change comes our way on Thursday as an arctic front swings through here. This is going to be a wild day of weather as potent upper low swings eastward across the Ohio Valley. The GFS is finally up to snuff with this bad boy. Check this out…
That’s a ton of energy and lift working through here. Those little disturbances rotating around the closed low will all act to keep the flakes flying. Look at how much wetter and colder that same run of the GFS is…
The NAM looks almost identical to the GFS with the upper level closed low. It’s even colder and also shows plenty of moisture hanging around for a long time…
What does all that mean for the actual weather? Here’s a breakdown…
- The arctic front moves quickly from west to east Thursday, reaching eastern Kentucky by early evening. A few rain showers will be ahead of the front, but the majority of the precipitation falls behind the boundary as snow.
- Temps will spike toward 50 degrees ahead of the arctic front and drop some 20-25 degrees within an hour or two of the front passing through where you live.
- An intense band of snow is likely behind this front and should increase in coverage as it works eastward into Thursday evening. This may cause some travel issues.
- Widespread light snow and snow squalls will then kick in Thursday night and carry us through Friday and likely into early Saturday. I fully expect accumulating snow for most of the state, with this likely having a high impact on road conditions. How much snow? Not for sure just yet… but it does have a 1″-3″ look to it with the possibility of more for some areas. That’s not my forecast just yet… just some thoughts. I will have a first call for snowfall map out later today.
- Winds are going to be a major factor as gusts hit 30mph or greater. The feel like temps may go below zero at times Thursday night and Friday.
- Actual temps will plummet into the teens Thursday night and then struggle to get out of the low 20s Friday. Some areas may not get much past 20 for highs. We’re back into the low and mid teens by Saturday morning.
- A clipper is likely to move in late Saturday into Sunday and may have a swath of accumulating snow with it. We will have to see exactly where that sets up.
This is pretty much following the script I put out there several days ago and that’s always good to see. I will update my thoughts as we get closer to the blast of winter and things become just a touch clearer. I don’t anticipate very many changes.
Updates coming later today, so check back. Have a great Wednesday and take care.