Good Saturday to one and all. We have some better weather blowing into the region over the next couple of days. This nice weather won’t hang around too long as storms roll back in early next week. Those storms may introduce a much hotter pattern before next week is over.

Today will feature a few scattered storms going up across the south and east. Areas farther north will feature mainly dry conditions with 80s across the entire state.

Sunday looks good with mid and upper 80s for many. 90 will show up in the west.

Upper 80s to low 90s are a good bet on Monday as the threat for some storms increase. These storms will continue on Tuesday as a cold front drops in from the northwest…

Canadian

Strong to severe storms will be possible during this time.

Hotter weather moves in later next week into the weekend. Much of the country should see much above normal temps, but the core of the heat will stay to our west…

GFS TEMPS 1

I promised to give you some fall and winter thoughts, but the storms over the past week kept me busy. Now that things have calmed down some, let’s do this.

This is the time of year I start to focus on some of the large scale signals forecast to show up for the fall and winter. We are coming off a super El Nino and many of the seasonal models have been forecasting a La Nina to develop this year. So far, the La Nina is REALLY struggling to get started, and those same seasonal models are now backing off on it.

The latest JAMSTEC seasonal model shows a neutral signal to, perhaps, weak La Nina forming this winter. It does so in the middle of a very warm Pacific. Here’s the December-February look at ocean temps…

Japan Model

Two things I’m watching. The potential for a low end La Nina, and a continuation of the very warm water off the west coast and into the Gulf Of Alaska. This +PDO signal has been one there for the majority of the past 3 winters, and is showing up very well for the winter ahead. As you know, I have maintained that signal has been the driving force for our past three wild winters around here. Last year’s super Nino muted the signal to a point, but it still produced another historic snowstorm with several other good snows.

Can we make it 4 in a row with memorable winter weather? The same run from the JAMSTEC shows colder than normal weather for much of the country from December-February…

Japan Model 2

While all of this is obviously VERY early in the ballgame, the forecast signals in the Pacific Ocean certainly argue for another fun winter.

I’ll talk about some of the initial analog years over the next few weeks.

Make it a great day and take care.