Good Wednesday to one and all. As summertime puts in some overtime, we start to look ahead to the rest of fall and winter. If you’re sick of the heat, you’re probably going to like what some of the seasonal models are finding for the months ahead.
In the short term… it’s hot through the start of the weekend. That’s when a “backdoor” cold front drops in from the northeast and knocks our temps down closer to normal on Sunday.
Another cold front moves our way on Monday, and this is where we find some model split going on. The earlier run of the GFS brought a cold front through here with a lot of energy hanging well to the southwest…
The latest run decided not to bundle so much energy in the southwest, and now has all that system totally cutting off around here…
That would bring a much better threat for showers and thunderstorms to go along with a prolonged period of cool temps. Watch this upper level low hang around for days and day…
That’s actually similar to what several models were saying might happen a few days ago.
The European Model isn’t a stout as the above GFS, but has the low cutting off across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley…
I’ve been posting some recent snow runs from the CFS and they have been showing North American snow increasing a little early. A similar run from an overseas model shows something similar through the first few days of November…
All seasonal models should be taken with a grain of salt, but one can certainly gather some useful forecasting information from them.
I have been showing the warm pool of water across the Gulf Of Alaska and how it is still going strong. I first talked about this in the fall of 2013 and then honed in on it as the likely driving force for the following harsh winter. That same warm pool was there for the following harsh winter. It was there last year, but was the super el nino muted it’s potential.
That warm pool continues to show up on the seasonal models for the winter ahead…
The latest temperature run from the WeatherBell CFS goes cold…
While that model does show some pretty big changes from day to day, I have noticed more and more days showing a colder look. Again… take it with a grain of salt, but also as something of a learning tool.
In addition to the past few winters, other analog years showing up: 1983-84, 1995-96 and 2000-2001.
Have a wonderful day and take care.
It will be an interesting winter based on those models. I would love to see lots of snow this year.
interesting happenings on the model’s again for you hurricane watchers..Seems like the last few yrs October has been busy..We shall see..
This time of the year gets me excited about what’s to come. I read the blog every day anticipating the tidbits that Chris puts on here to let us know what could possibly be ahead of us … this heat has just about wore me down so I’m excited for the cooler temperatures that’s on the way. Thank you Mr. Bailey for the work that you put into this I do appreciate it.
Thanks Chris. Hoping to keep good weather in the sunshine state at least through the next three weeks. I would hate to have had such a wet, soggy summer and then go on vacation to more of the same. As for our current weather, I cant say anything but WOW! We’ve had warm days, but the lower humidities and the cooler nights have been wonderful. Seems like that is just about perfect transition weather to me. But that’s just IMHO. Have a great Wednesday everyone!
Thanks again for all you do Chris.
Also on Bailey’s analog yrs negative AO number’s show up..Brrrrrrrr…Could probably throw in 1984-85 also..
January through March of 1984 Cincinnati got 13 inches of snow total.
January through March of 1996 Cincinnati got no snowfall.
January through March of 2001 Cincinnati got no snowfall.
*sadface*
Cincinnati got hit by a big snowstorm during the winter of 1996.
14.4″ to be exact, which was a single storm and 24 hour snowfall record, from the blizzard of 96 which hit much of his he eastern US in early January.
Jan through March 1984 wouldn’t be the winter of 84/85 though
Thanks for the winter update, Chris!
Cool stuff. Really like the analog year info.
I had just moved here in 2000 and that first winter I was like Oh My GOD is this snow ever going to go away lol
The late season heat is impressive.
Today makes day number 40 of 90 degree heat in Lexington. That number is somewhat unusual for Lexington. Since 1955, there have only been six other summers that have hit that number or more of 90 degree days. The most ever in a summer was 85 set in 1936.
As far as September heat goes, this was the ninth day of 90 or higher in September. That is tied for the 2nd most in September since 1955.
The most ever in September was 18 set in 1939 and 1941.