Good Sunday, everyone. We have a big blast of fall slated to blow into the bluegrass state on Monday. This setup will give us some chilly temps, and we have the potential for an upper level low to camp out across the region for a stretch.

Our cold front arrives on Monday with some gusty showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Temps will be warmest in the east, but will drop quickly as the showers set in. We could see a 20 degree spread from east to west along this boundary.

From there, it’s game on for some very chilly air to move in. The NAM is now showing lows around the 40 degree mark by Tuesday morning…

nam

Skies have to be clear for that to happen, but it’s still going to be jacket weather!

Highs on Tuesday may not get to 70 degrees for many areas. The conditions for the rest of the week will be determined by the upper low. The European is back to showing this system being right on top of us by the middle of the week…

euro

That could give is a shower or two and act to keep highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for Wednesday and Thursday.

The cutoff low then strengthens and works back toward the west by Friday and Saturday. Check out the increase in showers during this time…

euro-2

Any day that features clouds and showers can be VERY chilly. Even with sun, the best we could get may be low and middle 70s.

The European Model continues to show that same low showing up nearby into early next week…

euro-3

If we see that hanging around, that’s still a cool looking setup into the first few days of October.

It’s at this point we find the models continuing to develop a tropical system in the Caribbean and taking it into the Gulf of Mexico. From there, the GFS does this…

gfs

One of my early analog years for the fall and winter is 1995. That year featured Hurricane Opal taking a similar path during the first week of October…

hurricane-opal-rain-contours

Just something interesting to note.

Have a great day and take care.