Good Sunday, everyone. We have a big blast of fall slated to blow into the bluegrass state on Monday. This setup will give us some chilly temps, and we have the potential for an upper level low to camp out across the region for a stretch.
Our cold front arrives on Monday with some gusty showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Temps will be warmest in the east, but will drop quickly as the showers set in. We could see a 20 degree spread from east to west along this boundary.
From there, it’s game on for some very chilly air to move in. The NAM is now showing lows around the 40 degree mark by Tuesday morning…
Skies have to be clear for that to happen, but it’s still going to be jacket weather!
Highs on Tuesday may not get to 70 degrees for many areas. The conditions for the rest of the week will be determined by the upper low. The European is back to showing this system being right on top of us by the middle of the week…
That could give is a shower or two and act to keep highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for Wednesday and Thursday.
The cutoff low then strengthens and works back toward the west by Friday and Saturday. Check out the increase in showers during this time…
Any day that features clouds and showers can be VERY chilly. Even with sun, the best we could get may be low and middle 70s.
The European Model continues to show that same low showing up nearby into early next week…
If we see that hanging around, that’s still a cool looking setup into the first few days of October.
It’s at this point we find the models continuing to develop a tropical system in the Caribbean and taking it into the Gulf of Mexico. From there, the GFS does this…
One of my early analog years for the fall and winter is 1995. That year featured Hurricane Opal taking a similar path during the first week of October…
Just something interesting to note.
Have a great day and take care.
I love this forcast. #crunk
I mentioned to a workmate on Friday September 16 that the date of Monday the 26th would be the arrival of Fall air for our region thanks in large part to a series of strong tropical systems affecting Taiwan, China, and Japan. It’s amazing how weather is so interconnected.
Winter of 1995-96. I remember that was a long, cold Winter
1992-early 1998 were positive PDO years too which go along with what’s happening now, which is most like a positive feedback from the positive ENSO. That’s interesting that you found the Opal track. Yesterday the models brought Matthew into the Caribbean Sea. Even the EC drastically changed it’s tune by slamming into Haiti/Dominican Republic.
Yep I spent Aug 95 to Aug 96 in Knoxville. That winter was pretty decent there…..sure it was much worse here.
We had 60 inches total during 1995-96 here in Harlin in the valley….snow after snow…worse than 2014!!!
Looks like we managed to squeeze one more 90 degree day in Lexington today. That makes 44 for the season (that number is high but only tied for 15th all-time.) The September number of 13 is more unusual and is fourth most all time.
It can reach 90 in October. The most recent time happened in 2007. The most in a month was 3 in 1939.
August and September should be flagged. The NWS added a degree to the thermometer at Blue Grass Airport. We all were complaining it was reading too warm anyway, then the go out there and say it was actually too cool. So, they made it star reading a degree hotter. Pretty incredible.
What days will that possible tropical system be giving us that rain? I really don’t want to see another rainout for fall break like we had in the southeast last year!