Good Tuesday, everyone. We have some very pleasant weather continuing across the region over the next several days. All of that changes this weekend as the pattern becomes pretty wild across the eastern half of the country. That wild looks to include a big east coast impact from Hurricane Matthew.
Temps around here will range from 75-80 over the next several days, with a few spots reaching the low 80s at times. A mix of sun and clouds will be noted, and I still can’t rule out a pop up shower or storm.
Winds will become very gusty on Friday as a strong cold front inches closer from the west. At the same time, Hurricane Matthew is likely to be bearing down on the east coast.
Here’s what Matthew looks like now…
This system will blast the Bahamas and threaten the east coast of Florida over the next few days. From there, look out Carolinas. Here’s the official forecast from the NHC …
The GFS continues to be the absolute most consistent model with Matthew threatening the east coast. Recent runs now put Florida in play before it turns up the coast. Thursday could be wicked in the sunshine state…
From there, watch the GFS take Matthew up the entire length of the east coast into the weekend…
That’s an absolutely devastating hit for the entire east coast. That has some serious “WOW” to it. The sad thing is, the GFS is not alone in forecasting this. The Canadian model is very similar with impacting the east coast of Florida, then it rides the entire east coast…
For more than a week, I’ve talked about the pattern having the potential to pull something extreme. That would actually go above and beyond that.
For us, it means we have blustery weather with showers and some thunder on Saturday as temps crash. This has the potential to set us up for some 30s and a frost threat.
The GFS for Sunday and Monday…
The Canadian agrees…
Looking farther down the road, I’m seeing the first signs of “cold season” blocking showing up…
Positive PNA= Ridge up the west coast. Negative NAO= Ridge across Greenland. Negative AO= Blocking ridge over the arctic.
These signals have much more of an impact later in fall and winter, but do signal some potential big cutoffs across the country. Something like the GFS is seeing during the middle of the month…
Have a great day and take care.
It appears that the GFS perform much better than the euro as far as tracking the hurricane.
Something I ran across last night discussing Hurricane Matthew (look for that baby name popularity to plummet soon).
http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/10/03/why-have-we-seen-a-blob-east-of-hurricane-matthews-eye-and-why-it-should-concern-us/#f98fa239268d
I hope the east coast is already preparing for this one. If that model is accurate and it does go all the way up the coast, it’ll be devastating in its impact for those that haven’t.
Prayers for safety going out to all the East Coasters this week.
Does anyone have a link to a good interactive site to track the hurricaine??
The saving grace or silver lining for the east coast is that Matthew will hug the east coast which means the strongest part of the Hurricane which is the western part of the Hurricane should remain out to sea.
Yeah, that is the only positive. The Eastern side almost always has the highest tornado threat in addition to more rain/wind. I just wish we could a little rain down here in SE KY off of this system before the mountains start to burn. Heck, if we didn’t have the excessive rain from May through July, we would likely have water restrictions here in Harlan…