Good Monday to one and all. While we are enjoying another stretch of gorgeous fall weather, the pattern is looking to turn more active later this week into the coming weekend. It’s likely the opening shot of a bigger change lurking over the next few weeks.

Today starts with some 30s and patchy frost, then it’s more of the good stuff. That good stuff carries us through Wednesday, and then a cold front move in. This should bring a gusty band of showers and isolated thunderstorms from Wednesday night into Thursday…

canadian

Temps will be back in the low and middle 60s for Thursday.

A wet weather maker then develops across the Mississippi Valley late Thursday, and rolls toward Kentucky Friday into Saturday. Here’s the GFS…

gfs-2

Here’s the European Model…

euro

The models are then in agreement with another cold front dropping in from the northwest Sunday into Monday. That may have a much broader band of rain…

euro-2

As I said, things are indeed looking more active, and we can use the rain.

There’s likely to be a bigger system impacting the region late next week. That one may be pushed by a winter looking air mass diving into the country.

Speaking of winter, the new SST seasonal model is out and shows something similar to the winters of 2013/14 and 2014/15 in terms of being back loaded. Look at the amount of cold across much of the country from January-March…

sst

Interesting that it’s now showing something like that given I’ve been mentioning those two historic winters for a while now. Both had the infamous warm pool of water off the west coast into the Gulf of Alaska… Just like this year.

Have a great day and take care.