Good Tuesday to one and all. A week from today will be November and that’s when most people really start thinking about winter weather. Right now, odds favor winter trying to get off to a fast start, and that may very well include the middle and end of November.

That said, we still have some more of October to get through. Gusty winds will be noted for the rest of this week with seasonal temps out there today. Wednesday’s numbers will spike toward the low 70s ahead of a cold front zipping in for Thursday. Scattered showers and some thunder will increase…

nam

Winds will be VERY gusty as this system moves through. Lows by Friday morning could drop into the upper 30s across the central and east…

gfs-temps

Did I mention winds will be gusty for the rest of October? That’s certainly the case this weekend as another cold front swings in here…

canadian-2

Temps can spike toward 70 ahead of the front, then drop quickly behind it. Upper 50s to low 60s for highs will be possible on Sunday. The weather for Halloween looks good.

I continue to bang the drum about a big pattern change as we roll into November. This is something I’ve been setting up for the past several weeks, and see no reason to change my thoughts. The pattern realigns with ridging going up along the west coast and a deep trough developing across the central and eastern parts of the country.

What the progression from the CFS…

cfs

Given the analog years I’ve come up, and the warm pool of water off the west coast into the Gulf of Alaska, that’s exactly the type of pattern that should develop.

The long range European is also seeing this same setup…

euro-2

Nothing wrong with a little cold turkey… unless you prefer the wild turkey. Maybe we can get both this year? 😉

Make it a great day and take care.