Looking Toward November

Good Tuesday to one and all. A week from today will be November and that’s when most people really start thinking about winter weather. Right now, odds favor winter trying to get off to a fast start, and that may very well include the middle and end of November.

That said, we still have some more of October to get through. Gusty winds will be noted for the rest of this week with seasonal temps out there today. Wednesday’s numbers will spike toward the low 70s ahead of a cold front zipping in for Thursday. Scattered showers and some thunder will increase…

nam

Winds will be VERY gusty as this system moves through. Lows by Friday morning could drop into the upper 30s across the central and east…

gfs-temps

Did I mention winds will be gusty for the rest of October? That’s certainly the case this weekend as another cold front swings in here…

canadian-2

Temps can spike toward 70 ahead of the front, then drop quickly behind it. Upper 50s to low 60s for highs will be possible on Sunday. The weather for Halloween looks good.

I continue to bang the drum about a big pattern change as we roll into November. This is something I’ve been setting up for the past several weeks, and see no reason to change my thoughts. The pattern realigns with ridging going up along the west coast and a deep trough developing across the central and eastern parts of the country.

What the progression from the CFS…

cfs

Given the analog years I’ve come up, and the warm pool of water off the west coast into the Gulf of Alaska, that’s exactly the type of pattern that should develop.

The long range European is also seeing this same setup…

euro-2

Nothing wrong with a little cold turkey… unless you prefer the wild turkey. Maybe we can get both this year? 😉

Make it a great day and take care.


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10 Responses to Looking Toward November

  1. Jeff Hamlin says:

    Deep fried wild turkey is guud!

  2. Prelude says:

    I just don’t see any signs of a widespread frost (I know there have been isolated reports of frost) anytime soon most areas will be frost free right through the remaining days in October.

  3. LD says:

    60% frost in the neighborhood in Berea and the rear windshield was 100% ice this morning. We’ve had much smaller areas of frost and ice on the windshields once before this.

    • Prelude says:

      I get that, your the expectation then the general rule. I’m sure places in protected low line rule areas have seen frost and I would say that I-75 corridor and points east has seen a good scattering of frost. However being that said the rest of the Commonwealth it has been isolated reports, nothing widespread and nothing official from the NWS.

  4. Terry says:

    Scatter frost in Harlan this morning but growing season still going strong. I don’t see the growing season officially ending in KY until the pattern change anticipated after 2 to 3 more weeks unless we get a brief cold shot!

  5. Terry says:

    I saw that someone posted 27 in Harlan but I think they meant 37 unless we have new freeze proof garden veggies and kudzu vines…37 was the low at my house 3 miles east of the big city (lol)

  6. Chris Mercer says:

    Looks like October will end warm and November will start warm. Mid 70’s for the 1st of November looking likely. October will make three straight months of “Top 10 warmest” months in Kentucky. These records go back over 100 years. Something has to change this pattern!

  7. Dino says:

    Low to Mid 70’s all the way to next Tuesday for us good folk in SE Ky……Gotta Love It!

  8. Vernita Boyd says:

    What is your winter weather forecast or when are you going to reveal your prediction on this winter? We are all very curious to hear what you have to say!

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