Checking On Changes For November

Good Friday to one and all. The weather pattern this weekend into the first week of November is on the toasty side. As a matter of fact, we could flirt with a record high or two during this time. As all this is going on, the atmosphere is laying the groundwork for a big flip as we get deeper into November.

Thais is something I have talked about for several weeks now, and it’s something I’m growing more confident on.

Let’s start with the indicies and how many of them are showing strong blocking getting established…

blocking

You have the PNA forecast to go strongly positive and that suggests a big ridge up the west coast. The NAO is going in the tank and would suggest blocking over Greenland. The most impressive of the bunch continues to be the Arctic Oscillation (AO). This may wind up being the strongest -AO on record for October. I believe the top three are 2009, 2012 and 2002. Two of those three lead to harsh winters, with 2012 being near normal with several close calls.

The positive EPO and positive WPO are the big warm drivers from the Pacific, but notice how both trend toward neutral. Get those two to neutral or negative, and look out!

I’ve been showing the flip on some of the weekly models for the middle and end of November. The CFS keeps the deep trough look across the east…

cfs

The weeklies from the JMA are now all over this switch. The first map below is for one full week. The second map shows a full two week average…

jma-1

You can clearly see the progression toward a nice winter look showing up after the first week of November.

The Ensembles are now getting within range of the change and are also picking up on this…

gfs-gif

That is very consistent with what we have been seeing from the weekly seasonal models, and shows what should actually happen based on the indicies. To see this look matching up with some of my analog years… my confidence gets pretty high. Though, I have to be careful not to go full blown “swaggy Chris” on you. 🙂

Make it a great day and take care.


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14 Responses to Checking On Changes For November

  1. which way is the wind blowing says:

    Bring on the cold rain. In all seriousness we could use the rain the majority of Kentucky is in a drought.

  2. Terry says:

    At this point, I would settle for average temps and more rain. Seriously all be short term, it is getting super dry here in Harlan co. With the severe drought level knocking on the door at the KY/TN line. We are having some minor issues with low river flow and wells but I am more concerned about the fire season short term.

  3. Mike says:

    So, early November looks “wintry” (well, cold rain type wintry most likely…) Is that your take?

  4. Swaggy Chris says:

    Please don’t go “Swaggy Chris”……….. Bill Meck is bad enough.

    Thank you.

  5. retro fetch says:

    Fascinating info, Chris. I appreciate the the time to explain the indices to us. And yes, we sure could use some rain.

    Go Big Blue

  6. Jason says:

    You know its a stagnant pattern when the only thing we have to talk about is something that might happen 2, 3, 4 weeks from now..

    • Terry says:

      Been like this for about 10 weeks now…we go a few weeks forward only to see the active pattern stays inactive. Hopefully with blocking setting up, we can get back to tracking stormy (possibly) early wintry wearther.

  7. Lucy says:

    “Something upon which I am growing more confident.” Thank you for the detailed analysis. You know your stuff.

  8. LD says:

    Looking back trying to find the prediction of the record warmth we’ve experienced this fall. All I’m finding is the pattern change talk since the end of July going into August. When you stop and reflect on the discussion since that time, it’s almost absurd how differently things have turned out so far vs. the expectation.

    In fact, this has been an ongoing repeat of the “next week” phenomenon we have sometimes fallen into here in regards to winter.

    • Chris Bailey says:

      Then don’t read. It’s that simple. I wrote repeatedly about the hot temperatures and said MANY times on WKYT that we had a very warm fall coming… MANY times actually and it’s on tape.

      And, did you sleep through the past several years? We have had some of the worst winters in decades and our summers were all cooler than normal. Please don’t try to rewrite history JUST to be a contrarian.

      Chris

      • Lucy says:

        Don’t get upset over comments that try to derail your knowledgeable bold forecasts. It’s rare to find a met who will do the research you do and share it with blog followers. You show and explain your thoughts and expectations. Personally, I find this one of the most exciting times of the year as we prepare to enter cold weather season. We are snow lovers in my home, and you are open and not afraid to declare your thoughts while other mets wait until the weather is right upon us to predict. Keep going!

    • Jeff Hamlin says:

      LD, whatcha gotta say now?

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