Good Friday to one and all. The weather pattern this weekend into the first week of November is on the toasty side. As a matter of fact, we could flirt with a record high or two during this time. As all this is going on, the atmosphere is laying the groundwork for a big flip as we get deeper into November.

Thais is something I have talked about for several weeks now, and it’s something I’m growing more confident on.

Let’s start with the indicies and how many of them are showing strong blocking getting established…

blocking

You have the PNA forecast to go strongly positive and that suggests a big ridge up the west coast. The NAO is going in the tank and would suggest blocking over Greenland. The most impressive of the bunch continues to be the Arctic Oscillation (AO). This may wind up being the strongest -AO on record for October. I believe the top three are 2009, 2012 and 2002. Two of those three lead to harsh winters, with 2012 being near normal with several close calls.

The positive EPO and positive WPO are the big warm drivers from the Pacific, but notice how both trend toward neutral. Get those two to neutral or negative, and look out!

I’ve been showing the flip on some of the weekly models for the middle and end of November. The CFS keeps the deep trough look across the east…

cfs

The weeklies from the JMA are now all over this switch. The first map below is for one full week. The second map shows a full two week average…

jma-1

You can clearly see the progression toward a nice winter look showing up after the first week of November.

The Ensembles are now getting within range of the change and are also picking up on this…

gfs-gif

That is very consistent with what we have been seeing from the weekly seasonal models, and shows what should actually happen based on the indicies. To see this look matching up with some of my analog years… my confidence gets pretty high. Though, I have to be careful not to go full blown “swaggy Chris” on you. 🙂

Make it a great day and take care.