Good Saturday and welcome to Halloween weekend. Temperatures over the next several days will be about as warm as you can get for this time of year. A few record highs may fall at some point along the way. Once past that t, the pattern transitions toward a fast start to winter. Maybe one extreme to the other?
The only issue this weekend could come on Sunday with a shower or two trying to pop. The best chance for that happening is across the north and east during the afternoon and evening…
The models are back to pushing this front into the region, delivering a drop in temps for Halloween. Check out the temperature spread for highs…
That shows low 80s in the far southwest to upper 50s in the far northeast.
A cold front approaches the region on Thursday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Several models show something trying to cut off on top of the region into Friday…
That is certainly a MUCH cooler look from Thursday into Friday, and could even bring some 50s back in here for highs.
I have ZERO changes to the changes I think are coming. This is something I have been yapping about for weeks, and will continue to do so. This pattern is going to begin to flip colder starting in the second week of November, but not fully kick in until the second half of the month and likely lasting through December.
Every run of the GFS Ensembles show this evolution well for the second week of the November…
Even the operational GFS is beginning to hone in on the mid-month change…
For fun, If we want to look at the snow aspect from the seasonal models, we find some interesting looking data through the first 10 days or so of December. Here’s the CFS…
A different seasonal model through the same time…
The above is a smoothed average of approximately 50 individual ensembles runs.
As with all things weather, time will tell, but the look of the pattern suggests holiday season winter weather lovers may be happy campers.
Have a great day and take care.
That is such a beautiful map to see for us active winter weather lovers. Of course time will tell if this story comes true; I really like it to feel like the holidays during that time of the year!
Before this madness begins. I would love to see some moisture of any kind that would help alleviate the drought.
As for Louisville’s official reporting station, it is looking more likely that this month of October will go down as the warmest October on record.
But remember – “on record” is only back less than 200 years…so it isn’t covering all time… 🙂
Let the games begin! Ready for some winter weather to track!
More interesting info, Chris. Thank you very much
Does anybody know what Chris has picked for his analog years?
I’m ready for some winter weather!
Go Big Blue!
This is some impressive late season warmth especially across the Northern half of Kentucky.
There have only been 8 days November in Lexington that have ever reached 80 or above.
For Louisville that number is 16 times.
It is not as unusual in Bowling Green, having occurred 47 times.
Most of you probably know about this, but kyclimate.org has lots of interesting info on snowfalls in the past. In November of 1950 KY had 21.5 inches total of snow. A few posts back Chris mentioned how in 1950 (I think) it was really warm at the beginning of the month, and had a blizzard around Thanksgiving. Just something fun to think about.
I remember someone that I was talking to when I first moved here and they were telling me about the 1950 winter. Each month, dec, Jan, Feb had huge snows I think….
About the drought in Alabama – there was a headline about this so I was reading and someone had talked about how that area of the country can not go very long without rain because of their soil type holds no moisture, so they are the most prone for drought than anywhere in the usa simply because it needs to rain frequently in order for them not to be in a drought. I think it was red clay soil or something like that. They are in a horrible drought right now.
From central Tennessee and points south the soil there is a red clay form of dirt.
Can’t wait may favorite time of the year..
Hopefully we’ll have lots and lots of SNOW!!!