Good Thursday, everyone. We have a cold front crossing the state today, and this will bring a seasonal brand of temps into the region. I will take a look a look at that, and some interesting snowfall stats showing up across the northern hemisphere.
Gusty showers and storms will be noted today, but don’t expect a lot of rain. Winds will be very gusty with readings spiking warm ahead of the front, then crashing down into the upper 50s and low 60s behind the boundary late today…
A seasonal brand of temps dive in behind this front for Friday into Saturday. Check out the numbers from the GFS…
Some frost will be noted for much of the state Saturday into Sunday mornings. Highs will be in the 60s on Saturday with plenty of sunshine. Temps for Sunday will be in the 60s east and near 70 in the west.
The models are having a tough go, as expected, with a potential system for the middle and end of next week. I have been talking about how they were likely rushing the colder scenario, and I still think that’s the case. I have been steadfast on the change across North America starting in the second week of the month and then kicking in for the second half of November.
That evolution continues to show up well on the Ensembles…
The October snowfall numbers are in for the Northern Hemisphere and they are impressive. October 2016 finished with the 3rd highest snowfall on record, behind only 1976 and 2002…
This year finished just ahead of 2014. Those winters were all very harsh across Kentucky. 1976-77 was one of the coldest ever. 2002/03 featured frequent snow and cold with an historic ice storm. 2014/15 produced back to back historic snowstorms with some of the coldest temperatures ever recorded.
Will this winter follow their lead and produce something historic? Who knows, but these are interesting winter weather times we are living in.
Make it a great day and take care.
At this point, I think we will all take some rain whether or not we get in on early season snowfall. I suspect SE KY will be in severe drought when the new drought monitor comes out. We could still get out of this drought fairly quick if the pattern changes soon, but short term, it is super dry. I am running on 2 inches of rainfall since mid August here!
I hope this was the first and last time I see the words ice storm in this blog. I still have major PTSD from 2003.
Me too. I was never so terrified by weather in my life. Never want to experience that again.
Well the weather channel is finally caught on in what Chris is been saying a earlier winter start. There’s a nice article about what”s going on at Siberia that could very well effects us as a possible harsh winter this year.
Sooooo much green on the radar, even some yellow, and none of it is falling as anything more than spits of rain. Wow, we just can’t get a break here to fend off the forest fire threat.
Nobody who isn’t insane wants record cold like those years mention and certainly not ice. A nice normal winter with smaller more frequent snows that stick around for a bit, that’s all we need.
I wonder how long I can go without turning the heat on? The house has never fallen below 67 degrees so far this fall. Currently 74 in here. I always open the blinds during the day, close them at night etc. I don’t think I have ever gone deep into November without the heat running.
Absolutely pouring the rain here in greenup
Barrow Alaska sunrise/sunset on November 01 was 11:18 a.m. and 5:02 p.m.
By the 19th, the sun will not rise for several weeks.
So, while October North American snow cover may be relevant, the real deal is the month of November since the sun’s impact will become negligible, and all of that stored cold air to our north will be poised to spill south more easily. The jet stream coupled with snow cover aids in the transport of that cold air….By the way, the Arctic Oscillation should become more of a reliable indicator for cold shots later this month.
THANK YOU so much for giving background information on the analog years. Typically you’ll reference a year, but I have NO IDEA what happened that year. By saying “1976-77 was one of the coldest ever. 2002/03 featured frequent snow and cold with an historic ice storm. 2014/15 produced back to back historic snowstorms with some of the coldest temperatures ever recorded.” It reminded me of what happened those particular years.
Maybe an idea would be to have a reference list posted on your site that with the year and what happened that year. It might be like this:
1976-1977 – Extreme Cold (one of coldest Ever)
1977-1978 – ?
1978-1979 – ?
…
2002-2003 – Featured frequent snow and cold with an historic ice
…
2014-2015 – produced back to back historic snowstorms with some of the coldest temperatures ever recorded.