Good Monday to one and all. The second week of November is getting underway and so are the changes we’ve been advertising for the past several weeks. Week two of November was slated as the transition week, with more of a winter looking pattern taking shape for the second half of November.

The first hint of change comes late Election Day into Wednesday. That’s when a system drops in from the northwest, bringing showers and a quick shot of chilly temps…

canadian

That could bring some decent rains across central and eastern Kentucky, and that would go a long way in helping the forest fire situation in the east.

Highs on Wednesday could be close to 50 for some areas.

The next shot of cold invades Friday night and Saturday, and will bring the coldest air we’ve seen…

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That should deliver lows in the 20s for the weekend, with Saturday highs likely in the 40s. Can it bring a snowflake? The odds are low unless the angle of the cold shifts farther west to establish a flow off Lake Michigan.

The pattern relaxes a few days after that, but the next amplification is likely to occur farther west and be a major one. Here’s the Canadian…

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The European Model has a monster system…

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That’s a wicked look!

The signals continue to point toward that winter pattern getting more established across the country. The upper levels on the GFS show some significant blocking, leading to some potential fun and game in the days leading up to Thanksgiving…

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There are some extreme options on the table over the next month or so.

I will see you later today for another update. Make it a great Monday and take care.