Good Monday, folks. A brand spanking new work week is kicking off with fairly nice weather across the bluegrass state. This pleasant pattern isn’t going to last much longer, as a wild change comes our way late this week into the upcoming weekend. The temp rise and plunge on the way is impressive to see.
Late week temps will likely surge toward the 70-75 degree range ahead of a massive upper Midwest storm system. That could get the B word thrown around before all is said and done. That system will drag a cold front in here late Friday into early Saturday. VERY gusty winds will be noted as showers and thunderstorms introduce a major temperature crash.
Many of the forecast models develop a stronger storm system along that front just to our northeast. That would help setup a strong northwesterly wind flow that could bring the first flakes of the season in here.
Watch all this play out on the Canadian model…
Here’s a little closer look at how the northwesterly flow by Sunday can pick up some lake moisture and bring it in here…
That model run does show our first flakes…
In order to get some snow showers and flurries in this setup, you will really need the northwesterly wind to do the trick.
The European Model is similar…
The temperature drop is going to be awesome to see and feel. From way above to way below in less than a day…
By Sunday morning, the European Model takes out 850mb temps to -10c…
Per that model run, that’s a heck of a shot of cold air coming in here this weekend. If the European Model is correct, temps may go from near 75 on Friday to the upper teens and low 20s for lows by Sunday or Monday mornings.
For those wondering about the GFS, it appears to have lost it’s way again. The calling card of that model is to show something consistently, then lose it for a few days once within a week of the event, the find it again as we get closer.
I will hook you up with another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.
The chance for first fakes is awesome! Unfortunately though, the front itself looks very starved for moisture which is not at all good with the strong winds ahead and behind the front for fighting the fires and low water levels:(
At least the risk for severe t-storms could be marginal at best as it presently looks like there will be limited instability as well as sparse moisture. But as many of us weather weenies know, November is somewhat of a secondary tornado season for our area so we will be watching the next few days to see if conditions change or not ahead of the front.
Yes, we all get it we need the rain.
The GFS model’s find-lose-then-find-again behavior seems to be a rather curious deficiency. Any chance you could elaborate on why GFS seems particularly prone to that behavior?
Thanks Chris. Here’s hoping we all get a good drink of water on Friday night and Saturday morning. The entire state could use one for sure! In the meantime, I guess we stick with the old adage, “if you don’t like the weather in Kentucky, stick around, for it will change!” 😉 Have a great Monday everyone and thanks again Chris for all you do!
The growing season seems to be over, now to fight the remanning leaves ;(
It will rain whenever it rains. No amount of complaining will change that.
Some of us are genuinely worried and concerned about lack of rain; especially those of us who have friends and family fighting the wildfires. I have family in North Carolina who cannot go outside, because my entire hometown is full of smoke. One town that I know of is completely on fire (hundreds of homes in harms way). So, I know it will rain whenever it rains, but that can’t keep us from wishing, hoping, and telling people to pray for rain. Heck, bring on the snow. That might be even better! They just need a break.
My parents live in the Chattanooga/Cleveland TN area which has been overwhelmed by smoke so my siblings and I are concerned about their health. A few brush fires have even erupted within a few miles of their home – perhaps carelessly tossed cigarettes if not arson.
I suppose we need to continue to hunker down until the rains finally come……..however long in the future that time will be.
That young man over at wave 3 weather blog sure don’t think we are going to see much in the way of winter weather I hope he’s wrong
Not for the foreseeable future however that young man your referring to does think winter will start to show up around late December.
NWS seems to think it’s not out of the realm of possibility to maybe challenge a record high temp on Thursday or Friday.
fans of Chris Bailey facebook page up, come join!!!!
I requested to join rolo!
GEFS looking good with a -NAO..-AO..Winter is coming..Brrrrrrr…