Good Monday, folks. A brand spanking new work week is kicking off with fairly nice weather across the bluegrass state. This pleasant pattern isn’t going to last much longer, as a wild change comes our way late this week into the upcoming weekend. The temp rise and plunge on the way is impressive to see.

Late week temps will likely surge toward the 70-75 degree range ahead of a massive upper Midwest storm system. That could get the B word thrown around before all is said and done. That system will drag a cold front in here late Friday into early Saturday. VERY gusty winds will be noted as showers and thunderstorms introduce a major temperature crash.

Many of the forecast models develop a stronger storm system along that front just to our northeast. That would help setup a strong northwesterly wind flow that could bring the first flakes of the season in here.

Watch all this play out on the Canadian model…

canadian

Here’s a little closer look at how the northwesterly flow by Sunday can pick up some lake moisture and bring it in here…

canadian-3

That model run does show our first flakes…

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In order to get some snow showers and flurries in this setup, you will really need the northwesterly wind to do the trick.

The European Model is similar…

euro

The temperature drop is going to be awesome to see and feel. From way above to way below in less than a day…

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By Sunday morning, the European Model takes out 850mb temps to -10c…

euro-3

Per that model run, that’s a heck of a shot of cold air coming in here this weekend. If the European Model is correct, temps may go from near 75 on Friday to the upper teens and low 20s for lows by Sunday or Monday mornings.

For those wondering about the GFS, it appears to have lost it’s way again. The calling card of that model is to show something consistently, then lose it for a few days once within a week of the event, the find it again as we get closer.

I will hook you up with another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.