Good Wednesday, folks. It’s full steam ahead toward the weekend and the increasing potential for our first taste of winter weather across Kentucky. While my overall thoughts on this have not changed, some of the model trends are for a little more robust system taking shape.
Before we get to the weekend, the current weather is absolutely gorgeous. Highs today will be into the 60s, with the 70s ready to pounce for Thursday and Friday. This warm surge of air will be accompanied by very windy weather that can boost gusts to 30mph or better on Friday.
This action is ahead of a strong cold front working into the region with showers and a rumble of Friday night thunder. That looks to bring a decent drink of water to the region. Cold air will surge in behind the front with temps dropping 20 degrees in just an hour or two. By Saturday morning, some wet snowflakes may be mixing in with the rain across central and eastern Kentucky. Wind gusts of 35-40mph are also possible.
The upper level system diving in here is going to cutoff somewhere just to our east this weekend. Exactly where that happens is still in question, and can mean the difference between just a few flakes or something a little more.
The latest European Model has that system closing off across West Virginia and Pennsylvania with the surface low just east of that…
Taken verbatim, that would give the eastern half of the state some snow showers and flurries through Sunday night. It would also put a hurt on the mountains of West Virginia and Pennsylvania.
The GFS is the most progressive of the models, but that’s an inherent bias of this model. Still, it shows some wraparound snow showers and squalls across central and eastern Kentucky with heavier amounts in the mountains to our east…
The GFS and European Models basically give us the novelty of seeing the first snowflakes of the season Saturday into Sunday. Of the two, the Euro has a little more potential.
The Canadian model… ahhh, the Canadian Model. The latest run of this model has a much farther west and south closed upper low…
That develops a stronger secondary low that would have a much greater impact on the region…
The Canadian Model snowfall map is certainly NSFWW (Not Safe For Weather Weenies), and likely very wrong…
Again, that is likely very, very, very wrong. But, it’s interesting to see a model from 3 days away showing something that crazy.
It will be fun watching to see where this upper level can close off. As of now, I’m not seeing anything more than the first flakes of the season dancing about the air for some folks across Kentucky.
Another storm system makes a run at us for the busy Thanksgiving travel period. Here’s the GFS from Tuesday night through Thanksgiving Day…
I will hook you up with another post later today. I might throw in an extra one if I see something worth it with the midday model runs.
Have a wonderful Wednesday and take care.
I can see far eastern ky getting a decent peppering of snow,
The last run of the GFS is interesting
Whether or not some see only a flurry, a peppering or perhaps a bit more, it is still very exciting to early wintry weather in KY!
Would the the thanksgiving week participation be rain or snow?
I don’t want to see WV get hit like that as there are LOTS of people still without homes from the flooding and trying to rebuild. They don’t need this type of stuff happening to them. If we could just get isolated dumps on to the fire areas right now, that would be perfection.
Despite all of that, it is enjoyable to see CB in his ‘new winter season energy’ mode. I suspect it’s like the ‘new relationship energy (NRE)’ phenomenon but for meteorologists. 😉
Lets hope we keep a -AO and -NAO to out trump the pacific..Raging pac jet is somewhat concerning..2011-12 comes to mind..If not winter may end very early..Then bring on the severe..My opinion only..Does not reflect the opinion of KWC or it affiliates..
The SE Ridge has me really concern if that gets established that will really hamper the snows and cold for our region
That depends on where it sets up. A little further southeast and we are in the playing field for fence storms. Of course the northern half of the state always wins out on them.