Good evening, Christmas shoppers. I appreciate you taking a break from your holiday shopping to take a gander at the latest update here on KWC. ๐
Clouds and areas of drizzle linger this evening for much of the state. There’s even the chance to see a snowflake flying across the east.
If you’re a model watcher, you’re probably noticing the models are busting too warm over the past week. That was certainly on display today with many readings only in the upper 30s to low 40s. Unfortunately, your weather craps… err apps… keep spitting out bogus numbers. Sigh.
Let’s look ahead to our storm systems moving in here early next week. The first arrives Monday and lasts into early Tuesday, and should bring a lot of rain and wind…
We catch a windy and mild break Tuesday afternoon, but the next system then rolls in here by Tuesday night and Wednesday. The exact track of that is still up in the air, but odds favor this moving just to our east, with another round of heavy rain for the central and east…
A general 1″-3″ of rain is possible for the entire state from Monday through Wednesday. For many, that would be more than we’ve had for the pastย 2 months.
There’s even a chance we close that out with a few flakes flying Wednesday night as colder air moves in to start December. This is a seasonally cold air mass for Thursday and Friday…
Another system is going to try to come underneath that cold air by the weekend. That could result on rain and snow…
Looking deeper into December, the CFS continues to deepen the cold across the country…
Coast to coast cold isn’t that common across the country. But the latest blocking pattern suggests that’s a real possibility!
Enjoy your evening and take care.
Thanks Chris! Still no snow ๐
Thanks Chris. I haven’t seen cold all across the country like that in a long time. Just going to take it day by day and watch it unfold. Black Friday meant a regular work day for yours truly.
Good point, Coffeelady. It’s indeed usually one side of the country being below average chill and the other side above average warmth, but not virtually all of the country being cold.
Today was also an average day for me in the dungeon…. er office. But very thankful that yesterday yielded a splendid if short-lived time being with my parents, my wife and other family members. Hope all had a great Thanksgiving! Great that good rains are at last on their way and that all these fires could finally be soon controlled if not history.
CB, I respectfully disagree and agree with you on the weather apps. What I disagree is models pretty much always struggle with low level moisture and low clouds so to me it’s not at all to surprising to see temps being cooler than forecast. Being that said if we had a no low level moisture being trapped at the surface no low level clouds and decent sun the models would of been fairly close. Just a couple weeks ago, and you can go further back the models were going cooler when in reality temperatures were overachieving with ease. Models just not catching on to the unusual dry ground allowing temps to soar. In these two cases I don’t really blame the models all that much since they are notoriously bad on these types of scenarios.
P.s. You still da man!!!
Hopefully the models are correct on the rain..As far as winter weather starting to have my doubts about early Dec..Maybe middle Dec on something may pop up but not holding my breath..Just seem’s like it’s gonna be one of those thread the needle type deal’s as we move forward..Model’s are all over the place..Some showing a trough out west with with a negative PNA is not a good sigh..Cutters galore..At this point don’t have a clue..Model’s change from one day to the next..Maybe more ice than snow..Eh..Interesting time’s ahead indeed..
http://www.wsaz.com/content/news/Winter-2016-17-Forecast-403068016.html
Wsaz calling for little snow this winter, a light winter with colder or normal temps.