Good Monday, folks. Some MUCH needed heavy rain is working across the state and is the first of two such systems impacting the region over the next few days. These two may deliver more rain than we have picked up the past two months. That’s a testament to how dry it’s been, and to how juicy these systems are.

Oh, and winter continues to show up in a big way on the models.

The heaviest rain with this first round will be over the west and central parts of the state. This action won’t reach the east until later this evening and should last into early Tuesday. Rain totals will quickly diminish across the east with some areas not picking up a half inch. Your heaviest rains come with the next system. Before then, we track the current rain maker…

High winds are a real threat for several hours this evening into he wee hours of the mornings for central and western Kentucky, especially. We can get a batch of winds exceeding 40mph to race to the northeast. A 50mph gust wouldn’t shock me and I would hope a Wind Advisory gets issued.

The rains quickly end in the east early Tuesday with a mix of sun and clouds for the rest of the day. Temps will run mild as southwesterly winds kick up ahead of the next system. Heavy rain and some thunder arrives quickly Tuesday night and carries us into Wednesday. The heaviest rains with this will be across the eastern half of Kentucky.

Between now and Wednesday night, most of the state shoulda average 1″-3″ of rain.

Much colder air filters in for the opening of December. It’s a seasonal brand of cold that can offer up a rain or snow shower by Friday as some moisture sneaks in from the northwest…

gfs-snow-2

As far as the southwestern system goes this weekend, the European Model brings the whole show out and develops one heck of a storm and moves it right across our region…

euro-2

Taken at face value, that would bring the potential for flooding rains, high winds, a big temp crash and some wraparound snows.

The GFS is back to bringing it out in a couple of waves. The first passes to our south this weekend…

gfs-5

It then brings the rest of the energy out our early next week and unleashes winter behind it…

gfs-6

It’s interesting to note, that the European Model has a similar look with the next system coming in from the west and trying to deepen at the same time…

euro-3

So, regardless of the exact evolution of the storm system this weekend, as long as that southwest energy ejects out, winter crashes in big time behind it. Giddy up!

I will have another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.