Good evening, gang. Heavy rain and high winds are blowing from west to east across the region. This is ahead of the first of two storm systems to impact our weather over the next couple of days. As we track these, some models are suggesting the weekend system could be even bigger with a mix of precipitation falling.

I have no changes to my thoughts on the rain rolling eastward this evening. This will be accompanied by winds that may gust to 50mph at times. This may cause some power hits and take some limbs down, so batten down the hatches.

We catch a break between systems on Tuesday as the weather actually looks really nice. Temps make a run into the low 60s on a gusty southwesterly wind. That next storm will bring rain across the central and east by Tuesday night and early Wednesday. The NAM is the most aggressive with the totals, and farthest west with the heavy rain corridor. Here are the totals for just that time frame…

nam

That’s likely a smidge too far west, but the theme is correct.

Seasonally cold air moves in for the rest of the week, with the potential for a rain or snow shower on a northwesterly flow by Friday.

From there, it’s all eyes on the possibility we get that southwestern energy to eject out in once piece, creating a huge storm system. The European Model has been showing this for the past few runs, but the latest run went a little cray cray. Just look at how this system bombs out from Sunday morning to Monday morning…

euro-2

Here’s the evolution of this storm every 6 hours…

euro

Right now, the European is the lone wolf in showing that strong of a storm system, so I can’t fully endorse it yet. However, if we take that one single fun verbatim: It shows a wintry mix starting here later Saturday with heavy rain and high winds taking over into Sunday. As the low deepens and passes by to our north and northeast, temps crash as high winds continue and wraparound snows move in. That’s not a forecast from me, that’s simply me breaking down what that one model run shows.

Again, the European is currently the only model showing such a robust storm. We shall see how the trend goes over the next few days. It’s not like that potential is a week or two away… it’s this weekend.

ALL models have a very strong signal for cold to severe cold developing across the country in early December. One of the latest ensembles run for late next week is eye popping…

euro-3

By the way… those are 850mb departures… In Celsius!

Buckle up, kiddos!

I will update things later tonight and be tweeting out information with evening heavy rain and winds on @kentuckyweather .

Enjoy the evening and take care.