Good evening, gang. Heavy rain and high winds are blowing from west to east across the region. This is ahead of the first of two storm systems to impact our weather over the next couple of days. As we track these, some models are suggesting the weekend system could be even bigger with a mix of precipitation falling.
I have no changes to my thoughts on the rain rolling eastward this evening. This will be accompanied by winds that may gust to 50mph at times. This may cause some power hits and take some limbs down, so batten down the hatches.
We catch a break between systems on Tuesday as the weather actually looks really nice. Temps make a run into the low 60s on a gusty southwesterly wind. That next storm will bring rain across the central and east by Tuesday night and early Wednesday. The NAM is the most aggressive with the totals, and farthest west with the heavy rain corridor. Here are the totals for just that time frame…
That’s likely a smidge too far west, but the theme is correct.
Seasonally cold air moves in for the rest of the week, with the potential for a rain or snow shower on a northwesterly flow by Friday.
From there, it’s all eyes on the possibility we get that southwestern energy to eject out in once piece, creating a huge storm system. The European Model has been showing this for the past few runs, but the latest run went a little cray cray. Just look at how this system bombs out from Sunday morning to Monday morning…
Here’s the evolution of this storm every 6 hours…
Right now, the European is the lone wolf in showing that strong of a storm system, so I can’t fully endorse it yet. However, if we take that one single fun verbatim: It shows a wintry mix starting here later Saturday with heavy rain and high winds taking over into Sunday. As the low deepens and passes by to our north and northeast, temps crash as high winds continue and wraparound snows move in. That’s not a forecast from me, that’s simply me breaking down what that one model run shows.
Again, the European is currently the only model showing such a robust storm. We shall see how the trend goes over the next few days. It’s not like that potential is a week or two away… it’s this weekend.
ALL models have a very strong signal for cold to severe cold developing across the country in early December. One of the latest ensembles run for late next week is eye popping…
By the way… those are 850mb departures… In Celsius!
Buckle up, kiddos!
I will update things later tonight and be tweeting out information with evening heavy rain and winds on @kentuckyweather .
Enjoy the evening and take care.
I can go for the wild and crazy! We need to get the cold settled in place so that I can get one snow day in order to get Christmas presents wrapped.
Rodger owns his own business. Every day can be “a snow day” when he wants 🙂 Rodger in Dodger
Thanks Chris. Read the earlier post but didn’t have time to post a comment. Glad to see the rain. Not sure about the cold!
Twc reported 70 mph wind gust and wind damage in Wayne county Kentucky
It still isn’t raining in Somerset yet. We sooo need some rain…. and by the way Chris Bailey…we just bought a biggg snow blower. After having 18 inches of snow at my house in western Pulaski co. So we are ready for the white stuff … bring it on.☃️☃️☃️☃️☃️
As others have mentioned, there just seems to be something off here. I really can’t point a finger to anything tangible, it just feels like this winter is going to be a huge disappointment. I hope it isn’t. Maybe after there’s the first snow covering the ground everything will feel more hopeful.
Wow, those Gatlinburg pictures are awful. I didn’t realize it was so bad down there.
Could be wrong but i believe the Euro had a upgrade recently..One of the bias was to hold energy back..So maybe the Euro is on to something..If true then Euro may be King again..lol
Also forget to mention modeling is pointing to a neg Nao and Epo with occasional +Pna..Been a long time for this to show up in December..