Good Monday, everyone. It’s the first full week of December and things continue to look on the busy side. We have another big rain maker ready to roll in from the southwest. From there, arctic air surges in for the second half of the week. This continues to look like a pattern loaded with very cold shots, with shots at snow thrown in for good measure. 🙂
Let’s begin with the heavy rain maker ready to move in. Clouds and seasonally chilly temps in the 40s will be noted out there today. The rain arrives from southwest to northeast this evening and carries us through Tuesday. Heavy rain amounts of greater than 1″ will be possible.
Several of the models are now back to showing some 2″ rains across the southeast…
Wednesday turns colder as the day wears on with the actual arctic front arriving Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The amount of precipitation along and behind this front remains a question mark, with most of the modelling leaving off the wave of low pressure.
Still, the has a band of light snow behind the front…
That may be just a little overzealous, but has a shot of happening.
With such cold air surging in from the northwest, we have to look at the amount of moisture showing up in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. The NAM shows a lot of low level juice moving in from the northwest on Thursday…
The Canadian Model looks like a scaled down version of the NAM, with a VERY weak wave of low pressure bringing some light snow and flurries behind the front…
The northwesterly flow then kicks in and tries to aim some lake enhanced snows our way late Thursday into Friday…
That’s a cold look for the end of the week with a couple days in the 20s for highs with lows deep into the teens. Wind chills will be even colder.
The weekend system continues to look different with each and every model run. I don’t like any run that blows that system up into a big storm. At the moment, I don’t see that to be the case.
Instead, we could look at competing weaker systems rolling through the region with light precipitation…
Once that zips through here, another big arctic shot is likely to dip into the country early next week. This one should be colder than the one coming later this week. Several recent runs of the Ensembles and operational models have offered up some super cold stuff. The latest GFS being among them…
How will all this play out with snow chances between now and Christmas? That remains to be seen, but you can’t have snow without the cold shots. 😉
I will see you later today for another update. Make it a great Monday and take care.
I hope it’s not like a football team that drives down the field the whole game and never scores.
Yeah we seem to have a real problem scoring from the red zone. Usually have to settle for a field goal. Aka flurries and the occasional snow shower.
Defensively with snow we are top 5. Offensively with snow were not good at all. lol
It’s call snow has been block! lol
Or just the opposite it roars in like its a top contender with old skool winters and ends up ranking mid stream with fumbled hopes of a big one at the end. Still think we deserved Orange Bowl over Florida State.
I don’t UofL unfortunately got what they deserved. UofL absolutely cannot play the way they’ve been playing football as of late and expect the committee to hand them the rights to go to the Orange Bowl. I’m a diehard UofL fan but being that said UofL digressed as the season went on. If UofL plays the way they’ve been playing as of late LSU will also smack them around in the Citrus Bowl.
BUT you can have cold without the snow ;'(
I hope snow comes our way around Christmas. But if it don’t I still rather have a cold Christmas than a warm one.
Thanks Chris for keeping us updated!
I agree with your reasoning. I would rather have snow, but at the very least, I want a cold Kentucky Christmas as last year was simply terrible; no one seemed to be in the Holiday mood with the 70 degree weather!
August through November, Louisville saw a top ten warmest month for each of those months. I don’t think this December will fit into that category. Uh, I’m pretty certain about that.
I’m looking forward to the first flakes for me this season. A couple of weeks ago or so, we had a 30-second sleet shower and then it just stopped…that was weird.
I used to receive email updates and they abruptly came to a stop. Can I get resigned up for email updates?