Good afternoon, folks. With such an active pattern taking shape, I wanted to drop by for a bonus update as we kick off the afternoon.

The rain moving in tonight and Tuesday continues to look on the heavy side. The closer we get, I’m wondering if we can get some small stream issues to arise at some point. The NAM and Hi Res NAM show some lofty totals, but differ slightly on placement. Here are the totals from Pivotal Weather…

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nam-4

Considering much of that may fall in a 6-12 hour period, we will be on guard for some small stream flooding.

No changes with the arctic front arriving Wednesday night and early Thursday. Some snow showers and flurries look to be possible through Friday with the very cold air we’ve been highlighting for a loooong time now.

As expected, the models are slowly trying to trend back toward a flatter solution with the weekend system. Instead of cutting a storm into the Lakes, the GFS keeps going weaker and farther south…

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Here’s the snow map from that particular run…

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Again, watch for this to trend weaker and farther south in time.

Another arctic blast is slated to take over the country as we roll into next week. The new numbers from the GFS by the middle of the week…

gfs-temps-3

The arctic shots are locked and loaded and will continue to dive into the region through Christmas. It’s hard for this kind of pattern not to produce snows across our part of the world. Timing is always the tricky part.

See you for the evening update. Enjoy the day and take care.