Good evening, friends. Just dropping by to tell you I have nothing more to add from my earlier updates. Heavy rain is on the move and arrives later tonight, then we start to focus on an arctic front sweeping in here late Wednesday.

Tonight’s rain really kicks into high gear after midnight and continues into Tuesday. Amounts of 1″+ are possible across a good chunk of the region…

The arctic front moves in Wednesday night with crashing temps and a few flakes right behind the front. From there, a cold northwesterly flow will try to throw a snow shower or flurry our way Thursday into Friday…

nam

The next system to impact the region comes late this weekend, and the operational models continue to try to figure that mess out. I still maintain this is a west to east mover. As always, we shall see.

This is a great pattern to focus more on the Ensembles than the operational models. The Ensembles had this weeks cold well before the operational models picked up on it. The ensembles do show rounds of big cold coming through over the next few weeks.

They also show snow chances. Here are the individual members from the GFS Ensembles for the next two weeks…

gfs

I will have a full update late tonight. Enjoy your evening and take care.