Good evening, friends. Just dropping by to tell you I have nothing more to add from my earlier updates. Heavy rain is on the move and arrives later tonight, then we start to focus on an arctic front sweeping in here late Wednesday.
Tonight’s rain really kicks into high gear after midnight and continues into Tuesday. Amounts of 1″+ are possible across a good chunk of the region…
The arctic front moves in Wednesday night with crashing temps and a few flakes right behind the front. From there, a cold northwesterly flow will try to throw a snow shower or flurry our way Thursday into Friday…
The next system to impact the region comes late this weekend, and the operational models continue to try to figure that mess out. I still maintain this is a west to east mover. As always, we shall see.
This is a great pattern to focus more on the Ensembles than the operational models. The Ensembles had this weeks cold well before the operational models picked up on it. The ensembles do show rounds of big cold coming through over the next few weeks.
They also show snow chances. Here are the individual members from the GFS Ensembles for the next two weeks…
I will have a full update late tonight. Enjoy your evening and take care.
Thanks Chris. Appreciate the update.
This zonal flow that seems to be locked in just about guarantees mostly rain events here in ky. I see maybe one rain/sleet mix event possible. No snow u ntill late February.
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Frame 9 would fit your pattern well…unless one hates snow even during the holidays, this frame hopefully want be the correct prediction!
15 and 16 will be fine, thank you… I’ll even take a bit of 1 and 4!
I know, I know… patience, the dome, not a forecast, grain of salt, it’s early, the dome, warm air aloft, fear the trend, the dome, someone’s goat over in some ridge top or holler in eastern KY, and of course – no weather balloons over Mexico… Now that I have all that off my chest, it’s fun to watch and wait…
Models sure are doing the flip and flop in the long range..Rock,paper,scissors at this point..The only thing i see in the near future is possibly some overrunning events..Guess Ya’ll know what that means..Ice storm coming to a town near you..
I an surprised at how fast the models are trying to “warm up” the arctic air this weekend. I agree with some possible overrunning if we can even keep a strong push of below freezing temps locked in over Kentucky…pattern appears to progressive west to east for this to happen in the next 5 to 10 days though.
Don’t speak of such things. 😉
I’m no met. but i see a -WPO setting up along with a little bit of a South East ridge..Systems rolling through could spell trouble for some areas..How far the arctic air bleeds south along with the sub-tropical air is usually a good mix for trouble but where it sets up is anybody’s guess ..Just my take and could be way off base..Chris did mention the potential for some icy threats in his bold prediction and unfortunately he may be right..