Early Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang. We have a very ugly day in progress across the Commonwealth of Kentucky.  Many areas will end the day with better than an inch of water since last night. Not too shabby! Now comes the arctic cold fronts that take center stage over the next few weeks.

The first arctic front moves in Wednesday night with the potential for a shower ahead of it and a band of flakes right behind it. As winds become northwesterly Thursday into Friday, watch for some flurries or a light snow shower. The cold temps sink in through the day Thursday.

What do we do with the weekend system? Outside of the European (which isn’t exactly acting like the European anymore), most models are trending flatter with the weekend system.

The Canadian brings a light mix…

The GFS is a bit stronger with a mix to rain to light snow setup…

That’s likely overplaying the northern low, so let’s see if that trends weaker and colder in the coming days.

You will notice the cold surging in behind that, and that’s leading the charge for a stronger arctic plunge into the country…

That’s the operational GFS which now matches the Ensembles. Again… the Ensembles are kicking the snot out of the operational models.

Here are the temps on that run…

The same model run loads up another arctic front a few days later…

I’m not saying the numbers play out exactly as shown, but it’s good to see the operational models matching what the Ensembles have been showing for a while now. Go back and look at the post from a few days ago with me showing how the Ensembles had Alaska and western Canada sending shots of cold deep into the country. You will find the above maps similar to that.

I will hook you up with another post this evening. Until then, track some rain…

Take care.