Quick Midday Update

Good afternoon, gang. My time is short, so this will have to be a very quick update to hit the potential high points or the pattern over the next few weeks.

Our late weekend system continues to be a west-east mover that can have a winter weather impact to the northern half of the state. One weak system shears through on Sunday with a little bigger system Sunday night into Monday.

The NAM only goes out through early Sunday evening, but it has some frozen precipitation showing up across the northern half of the state…


If we expand that out through Monday night on the Canadian model, you can see how some BIG snows should be just to our north…


The GFS is similar with the whole thought process…


Following that system up will be an arctic front arriving late Tuesday or Wednesday. The GFS is picking up on snow with that system. You can see that added to the above totals as we expand the time period…


The GFS continues to forecast single digits behind that arctic surge for the middle of next week.

With additional surges of arctic air moving into the country over the next 2 weeks, the GFS keeps developing systems along the leading edge of these.

For fun, let’s look at the GFS snow map for every flake that falls through the next 16 days…


We obviously take any snowfall map with a truckload of salt, but one can see where the models think will have the best chance of seeing accumulating snows in the coming weeks. If you’re trying to get more specific than that, don’t blame me. 😉

I will give you another update this evening. Take care.

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20 Responses to Quick Midday Update

  1. Bjenks says:

    Keep them snow maps a coming. Haven’t seen maps like these in some years now. Even in the heart of winter we don’t see them like that. Hope the rest of fall and all of winter is like this. Thanks for the update.

    • Ryan says:

      Umm what about last year?? Lol

    • Matt says:

      We’ve had maps like these fairly consistently since 2008 if I remember correctly, with maybe an exception or 2.

      • Prelude says:

        I’m telling you guys if you go by and believe what the GFS snowfall maps say we all would end up with 50+ inches of snow every year.

        • Troy says:

          True, and that is why most of us put zero faith in the GFS (and the NAM for that matter) more than 18 hours out. Actually, the accuracy of these 2 models is dismal at 12 hours out though they are still nice to look at. lol

  2. bm says:

    Looks like we got tease again, snow staying up north.

  3. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    Always a brides maid never a bride lol.Its a frustrating place to live if you are a snow lover oh well maybe next time thanks Chris I know you would like to see a good one too.

  4. EF5snowfall says:

    Models are not seeing the cold. Watch.

  5. corey says:

    This blog wouldn’t be the same without the negative nancies lol

  6. Christopher says:


    It will be here sometime this winter; maybe an inch or maybe a foot.
    Mark it down.

  7. BubbaG says:

    Nope, the last three big shovel events have made me go to the “no thanks” side of more than a few inches snow. The romance is gone with my kids bigger now. Sorry for the selfish perspective 🙂 All I see now is heavy stuff to shovel and shovel paths to manage for my pooches to go potty.

    I would choose big snow over big ice though. It’s a perspective thing 🙂

  8. Rolo says:

    am I sense a warm up for Xmas weekend?? ur saying next 2 weeks with cold and snow that leaves off the big weekend

  9. SHAAK says:

    Was hoping for a surprise this weekend. Oh well, onto the next system.

  10. Jared Kyle says:

    I’m pretty certain the mets in Louisville are mocking this site..so childish and it’s not even in their market they must be so insecure

    • Prelude says:

      I know one particular met is. I absolutely cannot stand that met holier than though attitude very downgrading to people that met personality and attitude absolutely sucks.

    • Blizzardtim says:

      I hear T.G. shuck is back in the neighborhood again over on one of the stations in Louisville. Seen a YouTube clip don’t remember which station though.

  11. SellersburgSnowLover says:

    I’m guessing you’re referring to Marc Weinberg? He sure is an arrogant son of a gun!!

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