Good Saturday, everyone. Winter weather has been with much of the region over the past couple of days and this is the beginning of a winter pattern settling in. We are looking toward next week and the potential for additional arctic shots and potential snow threats.

Before we get to that, we will be on guard for a weak system ready to impact our region Sunday into Monday.

We have cold air in place across the state today, but slightly milder air is going to push in over the next few days. As this pushes in, the northern half of the state could see a few snowflakes or some sleet tonight into Sunday morning. The Hi Res NAM…

nam

Much of that will be drying up before it reaches the ground, but it’s something to keep an eye on.

As temps climb on Sunday, showers take over from west to east and will carry us into the first part of Monday. This could deliver another decent rainfall…

nam

Much colder air then filters in here Monday night into Tuesday. Low level moisture looks to linger and should be in the form of a few snowflakes during that time.

This is when we focus on an arctic front charging in from the northwest. This boundary will drop in as the arctic air spreads out from west to east. This sets up a gradient with waves of low pressure attempting to develop. Expecting models to perfectly handle this kind of cold and ensuing systems is pretty silly. I’ve talked about this for days and days now, and we have been seeing extreme runs of all the models.

The European Model shows one of those waves by late Tuesday and Wednesday…

euro

Here’s the snapshot of the bitterly cold air coming into the country behind that…

gfs-temps

That same run then sets up a wild looking storm system by next weekend and has another arctic blast moving into the country from the northwest…

gfs-temps-3

There is so much extreme cold across North America that the models cannot handle it properly. In turn, that messes up how they handle each system that goes along with the cold.

This continues to be a heck of a winter pattern taking shape across the country. We will continue to fine tune the direct impacts on our weather as we get closer to each system and arctic blast.

I will have additional updates later today. Make it a great day and take care.