Watching A Busy Winter Pattern

Good Saturday, everyone. Winter weather has been with much of the region over the past couple of days and this is the beginning of a winter pattern settling in. We are looking toward next week and the potential for additional arctic shots and potential snow threats.

Before we get to that, we will be on guard for a weak system ready to impact our region Sunday into Monday.

We have cold air in place across the state today, but slightly milder air is going to push in over the next few days. As this pushes in, the northern half of the state could see a few snowflakes or some sleet tonight into Sunday morning. The Hi Res NAM…

nam

Much of that will be drying up before it reaches the ground, but it’s something to keep an eye on.

As temps climb on Sunday, showers take over from west to east and will carry us into the first part of Monday. This could deliver another decent rainfall…

nam

Much colder air then filters in here Monday night into Tuesday. Low level moisture looks to linger and should be in the form of a few snowflakes during that time.

This is when we focus on an arctic front charging in from the northwest. This boundary will drop in as the arctic air spreads out from west to east. This sets up a gradient with waves of low pressure attempting to develop. Expecting models to perfectly handle this kind of cold and ensuing systems is pretty silly. I’ve talked about this for days and days now, and we have been seeing extreme runs of all the models.

The European Model shows one of those waves by late Tuesday and Wednesday…

euro

Here’s the snapshot of the bitterly cold air coming into the country behind that…

gfs-temps

That same run then sets up a wild looking storm system by next weekend and has another arctic blast moving into the country from the northwest…

gfs-temps-3

There is so much extreme cold across North America that the models cannot handle it properly. In turn, that messes up how they handle each system that goes along with the cold.

This continues to be a heck of a winter pattern taking shape across the country. We will continue to fine tune the direct impacts on our weather as we get closer to each system and arctic blast.

I will have additional updates later today. Make it a great day and take care.


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18 Responses to Watching A Busy Winter Pattern

  1. which way is the wind blowing says:

    I have a feeling that there will be a lot of cold air but little snow fall.

    • BubbaG says:

      CB is not really bringing up much snow and never really touted it in his winter forecast. The only “big” mentioned was ice chances.

      If the trade-off is not a lot of snow, but no ice- that IMO is a win 🙂

      I will be weary of CBs forecasts for second half of winter. Warm air aloft is a downer.

  2. kywildcat says:

    One thing is almost certain, there could be an Ice storm next week.Lets hope it doesn’t decide to set up shop over Kentucky.

  3. retro fetch says:

    Looks like the table is getting set for some snow! Thanks for the information and explanations, Chris.

  4. Rolo says:

    EURO says no snow thru Xmas,

  5. SHAAK says:

    No ice please.

  6. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Thelma Lou says all this snow talk is nice right now, but she’s worried about Christmas, can we expect the 70’s like last year?

  7. Terry says:

    I am noticing how the models are having a very difficult time deciding on how far south the cold air makes it too. Some are keeping most of KY above freezing for highs next week with a large temp gradient within a 100 miles or less…rain/ice/snow is too difficult to discern…of course that is the rule of thumb as usual. As they say in business, “location, location, location” will be key next week…hopeful we have less chances for ice and rain/mix and more snow but not looking too exciting yet, at least the farther south and east of the Ohio River you live.

  8. Jimmie says:

    Over the last few runs, the Canadian model appears to have thrown all its chips on the table in favor of a major ice storm affecting the whole state next weekend. Hopefully that’s way overdone.

    This is about the timeframe where GFS tends to lose storms for a few days. It’ll be interesting to see what the next few GFS runs predict.

  9. Murph says:

    Ice storms are actually kind of a rarity around here, more likely cold rain.

  10. Troy says:

    After these cold temps, I’ll be loving the warm-up trend coming Christmas week.

  11. BubbaG says:

    CB is hinting of ice potential based on the models next week. Hopefully the surface warms up enough to mitigate impact if it does happen.

  12. Christopher says:

    Hey, guess what? I think we will get snow this winter. And maybe some ice thrown in for good measure. It will probably be sunny too. And here’s betting we also get a cold rain.
    Cheers!

  13. Bjenks says:

    No midday or afternoon update. Hmmm….nothing to see here I guess.
    A few fence riders. Ice ice Baby…

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