Good afternoon, folks. I promised to take a break from a busy day and chime in with another update. So, here’s your late afternoon update. 🙂
A touch of sleet has been reported in northern Kentucky, but the milder air continues to take care of that. Rain will increase across the entire region this evening and carry us into early Monday…
Temps behind that will chill down quickly on Monday with the potential for a few snowflakes dancing about the sky from late in the day into Monday night.
From there, it’s all about the arctic front charging in here on Wednesday. This can produce a quick hitting band of light snow and flurries. You can see that zipping through here…
The air behind that is frigid. Check out the forecast lows for Thursday and Friday…
Highs on Thursday may not get out of the upper teens across the northern half of the state. Gusty winds during this time will make it feel much, much colder.
The late week/weekend system continues to show up a little differently as we inch closer. The models are now showing two separate systems impacting the region. one with a mix to rain initially, then another developing along the arctic front moving back in. That one has much more winter with it.
Here’s the GFS Parallel…
The Canadian Model is now similar…
The European Model is also seeing that second, slow-moving system…
As you can see, that’s another big blast of arctic air following up that system.
That air mass lifts out a few days later, but leaves behind a lot of low level cold air as another system shows up on the European Model…
This is a pattern where the upper levels don’t tell the full temperature story. The low levels are just so darn cold because of all the arctic air.
I’ll see you guys later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.
Too far away yet for an accurate forecast, but the overall setup favors a nasty ice look for most of KY with rain mainly for SE KY in my area. I want snow but definitely will take rain over ice anyday!
Not quite sure what to think after that 12z gfs para run
quite stunned actually, lets hope its wrong
If it’s the 12z gfs para is even close, that would be one heck of an ice storm. No thanks!
can someone please explain what is the difference between the g f s and the g f s para???
Models and precip types for the weekend systems will change 25 times in the next five days. Hopefully, cold air wins out. Rodger in Dodger
I like Winter/snow but I would just as soon have milder temperatures than dry cold and the dreaded backside flurries.
What is the g f s para??
The GFS Parallel, it’s slated to become the replacer of the GFS, I believe.
Hmm, the FIM was possibly going to replace the beleaguered GFS in the long term.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flow-following,_finite-volume_Icosahedral_Model
Perhaps the GFS Parallel is more of a stop-gap??
BTW, nice handle, EF5snowfall! 😛
Have a link to the run?
A few renegade lightning strikes have been popping up in and near the Cape Girardeau MO area in the last hour or so.
I live about 20 minutes north if Columbus ohio.I just started following Chris this is a great thing you guys have going on. I know I live far away but his forecasting is worth following. We only got a dusting out of this storm.
Welcome! There are actually quite a few on this KWC site that are not from Kentucky. As my handle suggests, I grew up in Tennessee although I did live a couple of times in the B-l-u-e-g-r-a-s-s State including to go to college (Western Kentucky University). I even married a Kentucky girl about three years ago before we ended up in Nashville TN.
I’ve enjoyed CB’s forecasting and outlooks since late 2011. Chris has proven to be highly accurate with his “hands on” approach to weather (as opposed to relying too heavily on computer models). On those very few times he gets the weather wrong, he tends to poke fun at himself 😉 .
I think, without looking, that this time last week, the models and talk on the blog was snow for yesterday and today (didn’t happen of course). I guess it’s fun to talk about it and read it? Hope cold wins the fight next time.
Cold without snow is a waste
I was kind of surprised with the weather today after the cold night. I hadn’t looked at any official forecast but I too thought some of the midweek models pointed to possible snow today.
Me thinks ye old models have fooled us again. Looked like some future ice/snow/winter event(s).. Turning out to be plain ol rain. Forecast trending warmer and warmer now for coming weeks. New forecast: same old cold rain. No snow anytime soon. Sorry to disappoint. Might as well get used to it now.
Why do I get the feeling Old Man Winter is gonna give us another “yawner?”
The weather sure does drive me crazy. Seems one week Mother Nature is calling for snow then it gets pushed back by another week and still never arrives. She sure does like to tease us!