Arctic Cold Shots On The Way

Good Monday afternoon, gang. I have a day off from my “real” job, but since when has that ever stopped me from updating things on KWC? The answer to that is… Never. 🙂

If you’re a fan of frigid temps, this is the forecast for you. December is already off and running on a very cold note and it’s only getting colder over the next week.

Before the arctic front arrives Wednesday, we have a little sneaky little system zipping from west to east across the state tomorrow. This will bring a very light mix of rain and snow to the south, and some fine light snow to the north.

The arctic front moving in on Wednesday should also provide a little ribbon of light snow and flurries. Then, the frigid temps drop in. Lows by Thursday morning make a run toward the high single digits in the north and 10-15 elsewhere. Highs Thursday range from the upper teens to low 20s for many, but it will never feel that “warm”. Check out the Wind Chill numbers from the NAM…

This will set the stage for Thursday night to be absolutely frigid with widespread single digits if skies are clear. That artic air will likely beat the numbers on lows, just like it did a few days ago. The dewpoint temperatures are forecast to -10. Wow… That’s one dry air and number busting cold air mass.

So, that’s the air mass in place as our next system moves in by late Friday into Saturday. It’s the first of two that may impact our weather over the weekend. The first likely works into the Ohio Valley, meaning a wintry mix to rain as temps spike VERY briefly.

An arctic front moves in Saturday night into Sunday with low pressure along it. That likely means a rapid temperature drop to go along with increasing chances for sleet, freezing rain and snow. Here’s how the GFS sees both systems…

The Canadian continues to see the same thing…

The European Model is on the same weather train. Watch that RAPID temperature slide that can lead to an ice up on its own…

So, we have the “Big 3” of my modelling world all singing the same tune on the evolution of the weekend forecast. That doesn’t mean they are putting out a Grammy worthy performance, but it does get your attention.

A recap of the weekend POTENTIAL:

• A wintry mix possible Friday afternoon and night
• Saturday should see rain take over as temps spike and winds increase
• Arctic front arrives Saturday night with a mix of sleet, freezing rain and snow possible through Sunday.
• The rapid drop in temperatures could be enough to freeze things up, with or without a ton of winter precipitation.
• Arctic cold temps then settle in for Sunday into Monday.

This arctic boundary may check up just to our south early next week. If it does so, we will really need to watch for a potential storm system developing along it. The European has been hinting at that for a while, and now we find the Canadian and GFS models showing it…

Canadian

GFS

As you have gathered from all this, we have several winter weather threats over the next week or so. I have no idea if those will bring us the goods or not, but it’s good to be in the game leading up to Christmas. 🙂 The frigid temps are a lock, though.

I will try to get another update out this evening, but this was a monster post and am not sure what else I can cover just a few hours later. 😉

Enjoy the evening and take care.