Good afternoon everyone. Our wild weekend of weather is finally here and things are starting to crank up quickly as we go through the afternoon and evening. We even have the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across much of the state before we get in on the wintry weather later tonight and Sunday.
Expect a line of thunderstorms to develop late today into the evening and work across the state. Damaging winds will be the primary concern as this line moves from west to east. The greatest threat for severe weather is across the southern half of the state into the Tennessee valley. Even without true severe thunderstorms, winds can still gust to greater than 40 mph starting late today and carrying us through Sunday morning. This is when the arctic air moves in with a greater than 40 degree temperature drop overnight in just a matter of a few hours. Once this happens, sleet and snow will take over for a while. While we won’t have wintry precipitation for more than a few hours, it can come down hard enough to accumulate across much of the state. The modest sleet and snow accumulations combined with wet roads that will instantly ice up because of falling temperatures will lead to slick travel conditions for the first half of Sunday.
After the main band of wintry weather moves east, leftover light snow showers or flurries will carry us into the rest of the day as temperatures stay in the 20s. That will set the stage for an arctic cold night with temperatures by Monday morning ranging from the upper teens east to possible high single digits in the north and west.
A couple of interesting systems are showing up late next week and then again late Christmas weekend. We’ll talk more about that after we get through tonight’s stuff. I will have another update coming this evening. For now, I leave you with your wicked weather tracking tools.
Have a great Saturday and take care.
Thanks Chris! Maybe we can get some “modest” accumulations across snow depraved Kentucky.
Half of the state is under a Winter Weather Advisory. I think this system will surprise many and put down more than expected.
What part? I hadn’t seen that yet? I’m in eastern ky.
Western and central
With everyone talking about the Christmas warm-up I’m wondering what interesting systems Chris is referring to this weekend.
Chris tweeted it could be a rain to snow setup.
In other words, not much. Rodger in Dodger
It is a fun setup but this cold shot doesn’t appear likely to go very far SE as Harlan may not reach below 20 for lows and the coldest high only around 40 for Monday next week then warming there after.
Actually, the opposite will be true for west KY as a few may approach 0 for lows tomorrow night. Usually, the coldest lows are in the north and east part of the state but not this go around as this arctic shot is what the old timers call a “blue northern” where the central US all the way down into Texas get the coldest of the air and it loses punch as it moves east.
Yesterday’s 12z and the 0z runs of the NAM, what I would call the sweet spot for the upcoming time frame involved for the overnight, hinted at more sleet than snow across the central and east central, but even that was trending downward. Nevertheless, many spots may see a combination of very light freezing rain or freezing drizzle, which may not amount to much but will add to the remaining moisture on area roadways that will freeze if untreated.
Just as I finished typing, weather radio chimed in with Tornado Watch for much of the region till 10pm
Absolutely not a flake for kentucky. 2-5 Inches north of the ohio river. This will continue to be the story for the entire winter.
We have already had snow in the air.
Still have alot of low level cold air here in the tn. Valley here in Athens area 46* right now is the warmest it’s been in 2 days. Don’t want anymore severe weather after the tornado that ripped through Athens a couple weeks ago! Bring on the snowflakes..
Someone correct me if I’m wrong but this might be the first Tornado Watch of the year for Jefferson Co. KY. Either way I suppose I’ll need to decline my wife’s requests to perform household tasks and go to my spotter station on the front porch….gotta protect her, you know.
I wanted to unplug for the weekend. Now, there is a tornado watch.
The previous times we have had these high wind driven, short precipitation fronts in winter, most of the precipitation is dried from the roads from the wind- unless wind is blocked from the surface area.
I would agree that with high winds the moisture would help dry the roads out, however the HRRR model believes that the cold air will catch up with some solid moisture for a couple of hours. Temperatures look to be below freezing when this occurs sooooo that will present some icy roads and issues for some.
So my county is under a tornado watch AND a Winter Weather Advisory. How crazy is that? Has that ever happened before?
I am in Warren county, same here. I am really hoping the severe threat gets squelched.
Nws says 59 degrees in Mercer county …. pray that is to cool for a tornado! I am a nervous wreck!
I have a sister in Scott County KY so I share some of your concerns! But the NWS office in Jackson KY is saying that severe t-storms/tornadoes will be less likely further east due to somewhat less instability and lower dew point temperatures. High dew points and high instability are two of many ingredients needed for tornadoes. So while areas in and near Lexington still need to stay on guard, seems there is less of a threat compared to what is happening now in western parts of KY and TN.
So far, only 1 severe weather report received, near Lone Oak, in far western Kentucky for one-inch hail. Good news so far???
I’m in Paducah, and it has been a doozy of a day. Large hail, tornado warnings, high winds, flooded roads, you name it – we’ve had it. Also, the temp has fallen almost 30 degrees in the past hour and a half. It’s currently thundering with a mix of rain and freezing rain falling. What. A. Day.
I may be wrong, but it seems the freezing line is farther East at this time then the models were forecasting.
35 degrees in downtown Paducah at 5:10 pm CT. Didn’t think it was supposed to be this cold until 9 or 10 tonight.
It seems like the cold is getting here faster…
Anyone else think it quite ridiculous to name a winter storm? I will not say the name of the weather channel that does that, but it is laughable to read the site.
Yes
No
So i literally saw the temps drop from 57 to 39 in my car in 25 minutes…
Where are you?
Hopkinsville
And that snow line behind this front line, 4-6 inches??
Has anyone seen the updated nam?
NAM has been bullish on frozen precip behind the front for several runs. I am waiting for the 00Z runs to start.
Let us know what it says!
What time does plz come out ? I’m in jeffersonville Indiana . We are flooded . My son had an accident and hydroplaned . Ripped the bumper completely off the car ..
00z …???
What a game! Monk is the man! Oh, wait… … sorry, wrong chat room… my bad…
I’m a Tar Heel fan, but I have to give it to the kid. It was a hard fought game on both sides. One of the best games I’ve been in a long time. Now, back to these dropping temperatures! LOL