Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s another absolutely frigid start to the day out there, but things are about to change in a hurry. Unfortunately, this change comes just in time for the big Christmas weekend. A storm I am calling “The Grinch” will bring some much milder air and rain over the holiday period.
Our day is starting with a lot of low and mid teens, and a few single digits. The actual numbers continue to smoke the still too warm model forecasts. Temps this afternoon climb through the 30s and may hit 40 in the south as the sun returns. This will set the stage for a fairly nice Wednesday with temps deep into the 40s with some late clouds increasing.
Those clouds are ahead of a weak cold front dropping in here on Thursday. That front could bring a snow flurry or two, and knock temps down some.
From there, it’s all about this guy showing off…
That is a storm that cranks across the Rockies and moves into the upper Midwest. That’s a track that will throw some showers our way Christmas Eve into Christmas Day as temps begin to take off winds will also be very gusty during this time.
The actual storm system then moves toward the western Great Lakes by Monday, dragging a cold front our way. That front should have a line of gusty rains with it.
The models are in pretty good agreement with all this, and show another deep storm system following that up into the middle and end of next week.
The GFS…
GFS Parallel…
That second storm also shows up well on the European Model…
I will update things later today. Make it a good one and take care.
A fitting end to a really terrible year.
I am already syc for 2017.
It only got down to 22 here over night
That’s not to bad.
24 here in Harlan this morning…no real arctic air ever made it down this way with warm up beginning today.
raging +NAO ,AO, EPO, and -PDO with a SE ridge…Folks it don’t get no worse than that..Could be torchy in the coming weeks..
Agreed
I sure do agree with that statement. Only bright spot was the January big snowstorm. Looks like I will be taking an extended break from the blog due to the impending warm wave. Hopefully the break want last till next November but it wouldn’t surprise me. Happy Holidays fellow bloggers.
We need to get out of this same storm pattern west to east won’t get us snow. Now there saying warmer than normal next couple weeks but we shall see.
All storms move west to east. That’s is not the issue. Lows that deepen/strengthen always pull north and with a developing SE ridge doesn’t help the cause. It will warm up for a few weeks, but the cold will return middle of January through Feb. Winter is just starting hang in there.
Not all storms come out of west, some of them does come from gulf of Mexico that’s what we need. but the tricky part the cold has to be already in place.
Thelma Lou woke up singing this morning & it wasn’t a Christmas song. It sounded like “Turn out the lights…..the party’s over” Her bold prediction of 70 in December may not pan out but January is looking good.
70 in December is very possible
Anymore, we have a 70 + day every year for the months of Nov-Feb! Now, if we start getting 80 + days during this time of the year, I will be alarmed!
Bowling Green high for Christmas is 67…pretty darn close to 70!!
Im liking the Grinch!!
I’m the odd ball I guess..I love the warm!!! Christmas where the kids can play outside and doors can be open…that sounds AWESOME to me!! 🙂
Here’s to hoping that some sunshine comes with the warmth rather than 2″ of rain every 3rd or 4th day during the period.
This.
Wow – December will average out, well, rather average. How about that.
Man! So many cliff divers on this blog. Winter hasn’t even started and yet it’s being punted away like it won’t happen this year. Even the greatest winters have mild spells. Personally I’d rather get my mild spells out of the way so the flip back to cold happens during the heart of winter. Yet, whatever the case, 1) The dreaded NAO/AO/EPO/PNA teleconnection pattern currently in play now will NOT persist the next three months (something has got to give at some point), 2) Try to stay optimistic, people! It’s Christmas after all.
True but it’s therapeutic to discuss the distaste we have with the current weather pattern. I try to stay positive and remind them how many great winters didn’t even get started until mid Jan – sometimes Feb – having zero snow or even very cold temps up until those points. Someone should go back and look at what the teleconnections were in the months prior to winters that ended up being huge but didn’t get started until very late.
We are experienced cliff divers
Meh.
Wait for it, wait for it…..yawn. All things point toward a boring winter ladies and gentlemen. The usual “potential” stuff 2 weeks out, and then…tada, nothing.
long range modeling can be iffy just like short range..Personally i don’t take any of them to heart..The way model’s preform anymore it’s best to not look beyond 2 days..So maybe it’s not as bad as we think..
The models are much better predicting warm weather than they are cold weather. They don’t seem to miss that much warm waves.
Personally, I’d take 50s all winter. Used to live in the tropics, and I hate the cold. The gardener in me likes the cold rains that are good for the water table.
The “never know what you’re going to get year-to-year” variety of weather in this state is awesome. Winter’s been dull weather-wise so far sure, but it probably won’t stay that way all winter long. For those who thirst for snow…stay thirsty, my friends. It can turn on a dime week-to-week.
Taking liberty here to edit CB’s post for our area:
“The models are in pretty good agreement with all this, and show another deep RAIN storm system following that up into the middle and end of next week.”
Just having fun 🙂
Would love you he snow in northern KY, but getting kids outside some on Christmas Day will be nice too! May not be warm enough to open the windows here, but we will turn the heat off for a day or two!
Thanks for all you do CB!!!
Geez I can’t type tonight! ‘Would love the snow’
I have been back in KY for 12 years; this seems to be an ordinary December, a few cold days, more warm ones, a lot of rain and a few flurries and sleet, no accumulating snow. Anything other than that would be unusual. Now, January and February – those have been different the last few years 🙂