Good evening, everyone. It’s just minutes before we shut down the greatest basketball state in the country, so this update is going to be short and to the point.

I have no changes with the Christmas weekend Grinch storm. The first surge of rain from that moves in here Friday night into Christmas Eve. Locally heavy downpours are possible, with the heaviest in the west and south. The NAM is spitting out some big numbers for some…

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Temps surge on Christmas Day into Monday ahead of a cold front. That front arrives late Monday with gusty showers. Seasonally cold air comes in behind that to set the stage for another system to move in here by Wednesday or Thursday of next week…

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The European Model has a nice shot of cold coming in behind that and would indicate some snow showers and flurries to end 2016.

You can see that shot of cold going all the way into the deep south…

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The European Ensembles agree with the deep trough…

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I’m watching the first week of January for the pattern to try to reload with arctic air. The models are forecasting a big ridge to develop across Alaska. For the past three winters, that has ben the signal for some harsh winter weather into our region. I’m not ready to say that’s real just yet, but the GFS Parallel has a frigid look again…

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We shall see what happens, but that 1983 analog of mine has been a good one across the country, so far. It had a cold December, but not much snow… Just like this December. It did take a harsh and snowy turn into January before breaking mild in February.

Enjoy the evening and take care.