Quick Midday Update

Good afternoon, gang. Snow showers and flurries did their thing last night and this morning with light accumulations across central and eastern Kentucky. Some local 1″ amounts showed up right on cue in the east and southeast. Now we turn our attention toward a loaded pattern.

The weekend idea hasn’t changed at all, so there’s no reason to rehash it all.

Next week starts with 60 and thunderstorms on Monday, but may end with our first threat level system of the season.

Arctic air spills in here on Wednesday and sets the stage for an active southern storm track. It’s all about reading the pattern and not reacting to each model run showing a different solution with this system. Last night’s GFS kept this system to our south, the new run does not…

gfs

The Canadian also has a nice winter hit…

canadian

The individual members from the GFS Ensembles continue to indicate the winter weather potential across the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic states…

gfs-snow

Bitterly cold temps come in behind whatever winter system that shows up on Thursday and Friday…

canadian-2

If we can put snow and ice on the ground later next week, temps can go below zero.

I will have another update later this evening. Enjoy the day and take care.


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32 Responses to Quick Midday Update

  1. Prelude says:

    One can’t argue that some sort of significant winter precipitation is going to make a appearance somewhere in the Ohio/Tennessee Valley late next week.

    • Rodger in Dodger says:

      Like your optimism but this is still 5-6 days away. a LOT can change between now and then. Rodger in Dodger

      • Prelude says:

        This is true but confidence I think is absolutely there for a southern system to develop. What the system does or how it behaves is anybody’s guess. Tuesday there should be some agreement converging with the models.

        • Tom in rockcastle says:

          Im with you on that, could be one of those hundred miles either way type system

          • Terry says:

            Yes, I am only about 80 miles ESE of you in Harlan county and have seen time and time again near foot of snow in either your area or mine with little to nothing in the opposite area and vice versa! I have even seen it as bad as almost the entire state gets a crippling ice/snow storm while Harlan mainly stays rain with a dusting of snow at the end, but then again, I have seen lows track through the Carolinas where Harlan ends up being about the only area in the state that sees a good snow!

  2. Virgil says:

    I dont like Winter, But it is Winter, so let it snow, just not feet and lets keep temps above zero please??

    Thanks Mother Nature!

  3. EF5snowfall says:

    Not to negitive nut looking back the last 9 years this set up has always started south but as the day of the storm comes in view the center has tracked into southeastern Ohio giving kentucky front end mixed precipitation then a cold rain.90 percent of the time this has been the reality.

    • corey says:

      Well not to burst your bubble but most of ky, besides southeast had been thunped by snow the past two winters…

      • Terry says:

        Even Harlan had some pretty decent snow in early 2015 but not 1 foot + amounts that barely missed my area to the north; at least the 2010s is turning out better for winter storm impact than the 2000s decade….literally never had a foot of snow here in the valley in Harlan co. during any winter season in the 2000s decade with the last in 1996!

  4. EF5snowfall says:

    The last two years have been extremely rare events.the odds of that repeating for third time are 1in40

  5. jim b says:

    Still about 8.5 on the old “yawn” meter right now…we all see this movie multiple times during Ky winters.

    • Prelude says:

      Look on the bright side model trends at least for today has shifted north putting the potential for a snow system in Kentucky. Now if my calculations are correct by Tuesday the rain/snow line should be even further north in the I-70 corridor (just kidding) lol.

  6. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Latest GFS model is a big snow hit for KY next week. Great to see but seriously don’t like being in the bullseye this far out. Rodger in Dodger

  7. EF5snowfall says:

    Models are trending north more rain than snow foe ky.

  8. Prelude says:

    This will change 1000 times between now and Thursday but the site weather underground has parts of Kentucky getting 4-8 inches of snow between next Thursday-Saturday. Mind you it is a model based website take with a grain of salt. I think it’s safe to say it’s the biggest potential for a accumulating snow to date.

    • Blizzardtim says:

      Yep change every run..But one thing for sure someone in the the area gonna get some snow/ice…And just my opinion but the 12z and now 18z run of gfs has rain way to far north..Could and can happen of course but just doesn’t seem likely given where the pattern will be during that time…But we shall see..

    • BubbaG says:

      Yep, this is how the system in 2008 played out. Blocking, southern fed system, snow chances and then the not so nICE word started creeping in five days out.

      That system though had a lot more than 4-8 inch of snow chance, so maybe if something other than rain or snow, not as bad.

      • TennMark says:

        I recall the early 2009 ice storm, not 2008. But feel free to correct me as I may be losing brain cells at an accelerated rate 😛 . The February 2008 tornado outbreak on Super Tuesday sticks out in my mind from that year, but perhaps there was a 2008 ice storm apart from the early 2009 ice event?

  9. Christopher says:

    Someone tell me when I should start singing Ice Ice Baby.
    Also, I don’t want to hear any mention of warm air aloft.
    I bought snow sleds and dug out the kids winter bibs and boots. We are gonna cram them on their little feet and put them to good use next week!

  10. EF5snowfall says:

    The gfs has the cold going to far east to fast just as it always dose.it will slow down by tomms.18z and will have the low tracking into ohio with central ohio and southern Michigan getting the snow.all rain for southern ohio and Kentucky. I would bet money on that.

    • Prelude says:

      No your way off it’s a southern system the cold air air from the front on Wednesday will keep the track to the south. The furthest north I can see the low going would be the low getting into Kentucky which would be a primarily rain. However if the cold air is stronger then what’s forecast that could also keep the low to far to the south and we get nothing.

  11. Bjenks says:

    Where is Rolo? Old skool thumping could be on the table.

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