A Fun Start To 2017

Good Saturday and Happy New Year! As we wrap up 2016, I want to say a big thank you for all you’ve done for me and KWC. I’ve always said you guys are the driving force behind this site, and I mean really mean that. 🙂

From a weather standpoint, the new year looks to bring it right out of the gate! I will get to all that in just a moment.

Let’s start with this final day of the year. Temperatures will range from the upper 30s to low 40s for many, with those numbers being higher in the west and south. Some light rains will be possible, and someone may see a wet flake mixing in, especially in the north.

Winds are going to be a big player today and can reach 35mph at times.

New Year’s Day will see a lot of clouds out there to go along with a shower or two. Temps will rise and keep rising all the way through Monday. That’s when low pressure works into the region from the southwest. This will bring showers and thunderstorms into the region, and I can’t rule out a strong storm… Again.

gfs

A true arctic front moves in Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with some flakes and MUCH colder air. This will be followed up by a couple of systems that can cause issues across our part of the world. The first system moving in on Thursday can produce some accumulating snow. The GFS has a high ratio light snow system…

gfs-2

The system rolling in behind that is the one to really keep a close eye on. The pattern continues to strongly suggest a southern stream storm to develop and pass to our south and east. From several days out, all the models will jump around with placement and intensity of this system. I’m not even basing my thoughts on a particular model, but only on the pattern and I’ve talked about this setup for more than a week now.

It’s still fun to watch the various models go back and forth with how to play this. The latest GFS is a big hit for the lower Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley…

gfs

The Canadian Model is similar…

canadian

Given the typical model biases of those two models, one could say the storm system should be stronger and slightly farther north and west.

Bitterly cold air comes in behind that system. If we put snow on the ground, look out, temps can get low, low, low.

And guess what? This is a repetitive pattern I see setting up for much of January, and can bring harsh winter weather for much of the country.

I will update things later today. Happy New Year and take care.


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47 Responses to A Fun Start To 2017

  1. Blizzardtim says:

    Well…This southern tn boy sure does like what the 0oz GFS done with the next week storm…Got my backyard getting 12+ inches of snow…If only!!

    • Andy Rose says:

      Starting out much colder than anticipated this morning 21.

      • Terry says:

        This is a good sign with the models trying to shove the storm southeastward; we really need it to stay dough unyi about Tuesday/Wednesday and then start the NW trend…feeling very positive right now!

        • Terry says:

          Sorry for the second sentence…phone went retarded and should have read: “We really need it to stay south until about Tuesday/Wednesday and then start the NW trend…feeling very positive right now!

          • BCFD firefighter says:

            Thanks for doing this blog everyday for us Chris! Your tireless efforts really help out this first responder to know what I’m getting into days before it gets here. We really appreciate all of the hard work that you do to make my job a little easier. Happy New Year my friend!

    • Linda in McCreary says:

      Big snowflakes coming down this afternoon over her in northern McCreary Co…..not sticking on the ground but sure is pretty to look at!!!

  2. Cold Rain says:

    Overnight and latest was not the best..No worries though..Main thing is still showing cold..Should have an idea around Tuesday what the second wave is going to do..

  3. retro fetch says:

    Looks like fun. Thanks Chris and fellow posters.
    Happy New Year and Go Big Blue!

  4. EF5snowfall says:

    Chris not showing N.A.M this time but both runs are taking the snow clear up to Michigan. How can their be such a extrem difference in the models? ?

  5. SHAAK says:

    The NW shift, is our gift.

  6. Joyce Tussey says:

    Happy New years 2017 , Good bye 2016 filling the pain ” something is coming soon something BIG ..GOT MILK ?? thank you Chris Happy 2017 it is Winter time ..

  7. Christopher says:

    Lookin good to put our brand new sleds to use

  8. LOUsnoluvr says:

    Loving the idea of snow next week! Will wait and see as usual. Thanks for all you do CB!

  9. Coffelady says:

    Thanks Chris, and happy New Year’s Eve to everyone. I hope your holiday season has been a good one. Chris, a good snow sounds like a winner to me! I know it creates issues but I lie to see one good snow a year ( more than 6 -8 inches). Anymore after that is just a bonus. I have a feeling that a whole bunch if us are going to be keeping an eye on the blog! Have a great Saturday everyone. Go CATS!!!!

  10. Winter lover says:

    Oh yea bring it on!!! Thanks CB for all you do.

  11. jim b says:

    As I suspected….the old yawn meter is a solid 10 now…wake me up when the next potential system is supposed to come through haha

  12. Prelude says:

    Just curious humor me was your yawn meter a solid 10 when Kentucky get smacked with double digit snowfall back to back???

  13. EF5snowfall says:

    The navgem model shows this snowstorm going way north northern Ohio and southern Michigan. Why??

  14. jim b says:

    I’d say it was about a 5 or 6 Prelude haha.. You see, every once in a while, LONG WHILE, Kentucky gets lucky with a decent snow, this is not one of those times….look at snowfall in Kentucky over last 20 to 25 years…how many 6+ inch snowfalls have you seen, very very few. Or maybe my expectations are set to high haha.

  15. Mike S says:

    It’s hard to believe that December temperatures for Louisville and Lexington will finish at or above average for the month. I guess the AO+ signal was not a fluke after all.

    But the AO is trending downward and is expected to go negative for the first couple of weeks of January. Good snow opportunities for the next two weeks.

  16. Muddy says:

    Snowing in Stearns !

  17. Matt says:

    I just wish we could get a day without 30 mph sustained winds. Can’t walk outside without holding on to your hat. It’s ridiculous..

  18. CoalminerD says:

    Pouring the snow right now in Harlan County.

    • Terry says:

      I can see that it dusted the mountain tops looking towards Evarts from my house. Now it has quit with the mix here but squally winds continue.

  19. LOUsnoluvr says:

    Snow mixing with rain here in Louisville. Just gross. Good afternoon for a movie!

  20. Andy Rose says:

    It was sno wing in south corbin

  21. Go Cards says:

    Beat the Hoosiers and Cats. Nice way to end 2016. Does Louisville even play football?

  22. Mark Hausterman says:

    It looks like this storm will be so far south Kentucky won’t be hit at all on the 18z run!

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