Happy New Year’s Eve

Good Saturday evening and Happy New Year’s Eve. Our last day of 2016 started out with a nice  round of sleet and snow for parts of the region. This managed to briefly cover the ground before light rain took over. VERY gusty winds continue to blow out there as we get set for a busy start to the new year.

No changes for tonight through Monday. A shower or two around into New Year’s Day with gusty winds. Thunderstorms and low 60s join the party on Monday. Yay?

The arctic front is still on pace to arrive by Wednesday with a pattern that can feature winter weather for the end of the week into the weekend.

Yesterday, the European Model had a major winter storm. The runs from early today lost that storm and only features the lead wave of arctic light snow on Thursday…

euro-2

The Euro does not crank out the second storm system because it overpowers the pattern with arctic air…

euro-3

Just like when the model showed a big storm yesterday, I’m telling you to not pay a whole lot of attention to any one run or solution. We are within the infamous 4-7 day window where the models tend to lose systems, then suddenly find them again as we inch closer.

That said, there are still several models showing a healthy winter weather hit. The Canadian shows both systems very well…

canadian

The NAVY NOGAPS (does not show precipitation type) looks a lot like yesterday’s European Model…

canadian-2

The JMA model looks similar by Friday…

jma-1

Any one of the above scenarios could play out. The pattern has been suggesting a winter weather system, but the bitter cold air is a force to be reckoned with. If it’s strong enough, it could overwhelm the pattern, giving us a lighter system.

I will update things again tonight. Happy New Year and take care.


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21 Responses to Happy New Year’s Eve

  1. kaybake says:

    Happy New Year, Chris! Read your blog EVERY DAY and (like most others) anxiously await every single post this time of year!

  2. msd87 says:

    Happy New Year!! Thanks from East TN, I wish we had a met who kept us up to date as you do…

  3. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris! What a weather year this has been! Thanks for everything you’ve done for your weather fans this year. Here’s wishing all of my weather blog friends and especially Chris and family a very happy and blessed New Year! And another wish for a big snow in the not too distant future! Happy New Year!

  4. Dale says:

    Happy New Year from Southern Pike County

  5. Dottie W. says:

    Thank you Chris and Happy new year everyone!

  6. Christopher says:

    Ahhhh. Getting nervous about our possibly premature sled purchase.

    • BubbaG says:

      That’s okay. When ever it does snow several inches, you’re covered!

      I’m sticking with CB’s original winter outlook, even though he seems to be wavering 😉 🙂 That said, I would prefer none of the frozen rain stuff that he mentioned.

      • Kyfireman says:

        Can you remind us that have been away what his original forecast was please?

        • Lucy says:

          Big weather makers, especially snow, and bitter cold.

        • BubbaG says:

          Some must have read another winter outlook. The one I read for CB’s main winter outlook was in summary:

          1. Not a lot of snow
          2. Cold and warm spikes
          3. Biggest chance is big ice (not snow)

          That is why CB is posting he might have underestimated snow potential in his outlook. IMO the outlook is sound. We have more a chance for big ice than snow and probably not much snow this winter, beyond some drive-by events.

      • Christopher says:

        Thanks for the moral support!

  7. Jimbo says:

    Happy New Year to all. Fitzpatrick WSAZ says no snowstorm next week. Only the dreaded backside flurries.

  8. Todd says:

    Happy New Year Chris and weather bloggers, may 2017 bring everything that makes you happy and most of all healthy.
    God bless and bring on the SNOW :]

  9. LetItSnow says:

    Is it still possible to receive Chris’s updates via email when he posts them? I can’t find a link anywhere.

  10. Nickpf says:

    I also like your post ive been reading researching weather since i was a kid and ive also been waiting on the big one, living in cincinnati we have been missed or have had some close calls the last few yrs. If im correct i think for this area since we have had 10,12inches or more was early March of 2008 and i have been thinking this yr our entire area could possible get one , im hoping.

  11. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    Happy New Year to Chris and my fellow weather bloggers. Chris I will take any snow I can get lol may you have a wonderful 2017.

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