Good Saturday evening and Happy New Year’s Eve. Our last day of 2016 started out with a nice  round of sleet and snow for parts of the region. This managed to briefly cover the ground before light rain took over. VERY gusty winds continue to blow out there as we get set for a busy start to the new year.

No changes for tonight through Monday. A shower or two around into New Year’s Day with gusty winds. Thunderstorms and low 60s join the party on Monday. Yay?

The arctic front is still on pace to arrive by Wednesday with a pattern that can feature winter weather for the end of the week into the weekend.

Yesterday, the European Model had a major winter storm. The runs from early today lost that storm and only features the lead wave of arctic light snow on Thursday…

euro-2

The Euro does not crank out the second storm system because it overpowers the pattern with arctic air…

euro-3

Just like when the model showed a big storm yesterday, I’m telling you to not pay a whole lot of attention to any one run or solution. We are within the infamous 4-7 day window where the models tend to lose systems, then suddenly find them again as we inch closer.

That said, there are still several models showing a healthy winter weather hit. The Canadian shows both systems very well…

canadian

The NAVY NOGAPS (does not show precipitation type) looks a lot like yesterday’s European Model…

canadian-2

The JMA model looks similar by Friday…

jma-1

Any one of the above scenarios could play out. The pattern has been suggesting a winter weather system, but the bitter cold air is a force to be reckoned with. If it’s strong enough, it could overwhelm the pattern, giving us a lighter system.

I will update things again tonight. Happy New Year and take care.