Action Packed Start To 2017

Happy New Year, Everyone! Here’s hoping 2017 brings each of you nothing but prosperity and happiness in whatever form you want. πŸ™‚ In terms of the weather and 2017, the new year is kicking off with a very active setup right out of the gate.

This New Year’s Day may feature a shower or two with temps generally in the 40s, with some 50s in the south and west.

Temps will actually rise overnight into early Monday as southwesterly winds develop. This will boost temps deep into the 60s for many areas…

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With an area of low pressure passing across the region, showers and strong thunderstorms will develop as the day wears on…

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High winds and heavy rains are very possible for the second day of the new year.

Arctic air will then surge in here Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Check out some of the model forecast numbers by Wednesday morning…

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This is where we run into some question marks. Each model run is a little different with what they think happens with a couple of systems passing to our south late this week.

The lead system on Thursday may wind up trying to become the bigger deal as the arctic cold threatens to crush the second system behind it. That said, the new European Model is trending back toward a bigger system…

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That is showing some pretty good snows around here and is close to getting back to what it was showing a few days ago.

The Canadian Model is also pretty close to showing something bigger…

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What does all this show us? That forecasting the pattern is a much better way to go instead of waffling with each model run.

We’re still a few days away from the models fully understanding all the variables at play with this.

The arctic cold later this week into the weekend is impressive. The Canadian did well with the December cold shots we had. Here’s what it thinks will happen this coming weekend…

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I will have updates later today. Happy New Year and take care.


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58 Responses to Action Packed Start To 2017

  1. The Paducah NWS has sunny and cold for the week ending forecast and Louisville NWS has the forecast that CB has been forecast. Weird if you might say, but I’ll take CB word anyway.

  2. Bjenks says:

    Happy New Year Chris Bailey and all the KWC followers. Hopefully Mother Nature brings all of us some fun and games later this week and the rest of winter. I Like the pattern change later this week and hope it hangs around for some time. Have a great day.

  3. which way is the wind blowing says:

    The price we have to pay for any type of snowfall.

  4. retro fetch says:

    Happy New Year my fair and fowl weather friends. I’m excited about the snow chances coming and got to admit, I’ll enjoy those warm temps before the cold arrives. Thanks for all you do Chris. Great work!

  5. Christopher says:

    The forecasting the pattern is a much better way to go? Which way are we going with this? What is the pattern? I’m afraid I jinxed us with my sled purchase. I blame the kids. Y’all can blame me. I was just excited when I saw all the snowflakes and ice mentioned on my TWC app. Now it is all gone. Bummer.

  6. Pathetic snow seeking teacher says:

    Happy New Year ,
    I am excited about the prospect of snow as last year was a total bust for those of us in the tri-state area. We did have a “dry snow day”
    which I’m still trying to figure out. Chris, you are my go to guy for all things cold and snowy. I am feeling hopeful for a true winter this year!

  7. BubbaG says:

    Again, still seems CB’s winter outlook is solid. Rationale being he nailed the previous two winters and so far, this winter is panning out as well.

    Outlook summary (if i read it correctly)

    Not a lot of snow

    Cold and warm spikes

    Main bold chance is ice for a big event (not snow)

    IMO see no reason to deviate, but if a snowman maker happens and none of the bad frozen stuff, Great! πŸ™‚

  8. LD says:

    Let’s not forget how last December started in the expectations and forecasting department. We’ve now lived through the month, so we know how it actually worked out. When was the last month that was supposed to be a sure bet for being cold and ended being warmer than normal?

    http://kyweathercenter.com/?m=20161201

    One the plus side, the misery that was 2016 is now over and we can begin a new.

    • Jimbo says:

      And boy was 2016 misery. On so many levels for me but as bad as it was, it could have always been worse. As for 2017 looks like, goodbye snow chances, hello couple days of dry cold

  9. kywildcat says:

    Models have flipped warm, looking like it may be game over for winter

  10. EF5snowfall says:

    I’m sorry but all these meteorologists are horrible forecasters this winter.This is a joke.just spit out what ever the model’s say and don’t use there brain.can’t trust any of them.

  11. EF5snowfall says:

    Chris is the only one I kind of trust.

    • Prelude says:

      If I am CB I’m not sure if your giving a compliment or not?

    • BubbaG says:

      The problem with some mets is they DO use the models and very little if any interpretation or composite analysis (weighing the accurate vs inaccurate ones)- they be lazy.

      Oh well, the lazier mets have a VERY low bar now- Mariah Carey and Ohio State have now set the bar VERY low πŸ˜‰

  12. Jimbo says:

    Winter has been parked from the Pacific Northwest across to the Great Lakes. It looks to stay there with just the occasional dry cold incursion into our area. I bet the upcoming one will be no different. The earlier predicted Winter storm looks more and more weaker or gone all together. The cold will brief because of no snow cover.

  13. EF5snowfall says:

    Cb commitment is crazy

  14. Ef5snowball, if anything is crazy it’s you. I been following CB for years his work is far better that the other Mets we’ve got.

  15. EF5snowfall says:

    Being crazy in a good way.

  16. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Models going warm after Jan 10th. Also no consensus on next week’s weather event. This winter slipping away with NO snow yet. Rodger could care less about “big cold” if no snow included. These “next week” storms getting old. Rodger in Dodger

    • Terry says:

      If we get no real deal snowpack next week, I am not too confident it will get all that cold either. Usually, arcic air loses a lot of punch when it comes out of the northwest instead of coming straight down out of the midwest!

      It still has not yet reached single digits in SE KY, but we still have several weeks to go. The coldest night for me so far has been 13 two weeks sgo.

    • BubbaG says:

      This was CB’s winter outlook in the first place. Seems he kind of balked a little with the weekly Lucy football model’s overall trends.

    • Rodger in Dodger says:

      Lack of afternoon update (as of 3pm best) from Mr Bailey is telling too.

  17. corey says:

    Relax people!! The models go crazy during the 4-7 day out period…Chris said he is fairly confident on a harsh winter pattern during this.month…how.about we just wait and see before throwing in the towel…giving up WAY too easy

    • Terry says:

      That’s why CB calls the people following his blog “weather weenies.” We are brats! We want the goods when we think we are going to get them but instead get jerked around by the models which I know better not to buy too much into myself…hard lesson learned over the years:)

  18. Troy says:

    I do love a nice snowfall. That may happen or it might not. We are in the same rotten pattern as the last few years here in southern KY and I’m already so sick of it I could puke. Warm and dry, one day…rain for the next 3-4 days….very cold for 2 days. Wash and repeat. To be quite honest, whether warm or cold, I couldn’t be happier than to recede back into drought conditions
    To me, constant rain is much worse than the “dreaded ice” is to Bubba! πŸ˜‰

  19. Snowluvr says:

    Happy New Year to CB, his family (thanks for sharing him, even on holiday season), and all my fellow blog followers!

    It’s only day 1 of the new year. I’m not throwing in the towel on snow until I start seeing my early tulips bloom. Here’s to a great year and feet of snow in January and February!

  20. EF5snowfall says:

    Well we can look forward to the storm next Sunday it looks like cold rain for kentucky yaaa!!

  21. Prelude says:

    The 12z Euro says no snow for Kentucky for the next 10 days, why am I not surprised? lol

  22. Lucy says:

    Watch other mets, and hear 12 hours out what may happen. Read CB, and find out the weather behind the weather. It’s like behind the scenes movie information–more than most know. We hear about the possibility of snow, and hope it happens. Most people don’t know there was a possibility of snow, but CB readers do. Like others here, I feel disappointed when the potential for snow drifts away, but I love all of the interesting information. The worst to me is the dry cold followed by wet warm. It’s like a tease. Why can’t it be cold and moist?

  23. Blizzardtim says:

    And it’s back!!! The snowstorm is back on the 18z run of gfs ..lol

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