Monday Evening Musings

Good evening, everyone. It certainly feels the part of spring out there this evening with mild temps and an increase in showers and thunderstorms. Don’t get too used to it, Old Man Winter is about to crash the party in a few days.

I have no changes on the showers and storms tonight. Hit the radars page up top to do some tracking.

What happens later this week? That’s the million dollar question that is still a day or two away from being answered. Let’s see what the current model runs are thinking.

The European Model looks a lot like the earlier run from the Canadian. It shows a light snowfall across the entire state on Thursday, with the second storm too far south and east. Here’s the Thursday system…

euro

The arctic cold coming in behind that then crushes the next system…

euro-2

The new GFS is also a bit farther south with this system, but nowhere near as suppressed…

gfs-gif-5

The GFS Parallel is farther north…

gfs-gif-4

The Japanese Model still has more of a Kentucky hit…

jma

We have to get the energy fully into western North America before the models can get a good sample of it. Once that happens, you can sometimes see big model swings. Those could go either direction.

I will update things once again later tonight. Enjoy your March-like evening and take care.


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33 Responses to Monday Evening Musings

  1. Michael says:

    So, which would be more likely: a dusting of snow or over 3 inches? Also, is there a chance of a snow day for the kiddos?

  2. Drew says:

    Judging by that thursday model, is that worth any accumulations? Dusting, 1-3 inches?

  3. SpaceGhost says:

    WSAZ has committed to mostly snow showers
    at this point. Figures…

  4. Winter Warlock says:

    Models w waffle and won’t know till Wed IMO! Wait and see for now…

  5. Bjenks says:

    The Japanese model is holding true. I like what I am seeing with the not so suppressed look. Hope we can get a good snow before our southern neighbors do.

  6. EF5snowfall says:

    That high pressure is key.at this point it moves tward southern Indiana a high vs. A low the high always scares low pressure away. Thus suppressed low in gulf.just wait till late February that’s when snow will make a big appearance.

  7. Winter Warlock says:

    Gotta love the AccuWeather radar tonight! It is awesome and make it look like Armageddon is coming!

  8. Lucy says:

    Experience says wait. 12-18 hours out is really the best solid information. Most whopper snow forecasts days out completely change. It’s fun to watch the comment counts increase though. I think one post last winter had over 300 comments.

    • Rodger in Dodger says:

      You’re correct, Lucy. It seems like the majority of big snows in our region came with little fanfare. I know the Blizzard of ’78 and huge pre-Christmas snow in Dec of 2004 were forecasted minor events up until right before they hit. Forecasted big events typically don’t happen. Rodger in Dodger

      • Bjenks says:

        Remember both of them snows very well. Another one was the three day 22 inch snow that came off the East Coast. Forgot date, but I think around ’98

        • Rodger in Dodger says:

          Yes, received about 12″ in western KY from that one. Strangest winter event ever with a low circulating along the east coast kicking moisture back WEST into cold air. One in a million. Rodger in Dodger

  9. Mark Hausterman says:

    Wouldn’t the SE Ridge be our friends in OH,KY for a good Snowfall also or is there too much cold knocking it down for not storm to happen?

  10. Mark Hausterman says:

    Too much for a storm to happen*

  11. Drew says:

    I just seen where Chris tweeted there was a chance for a snow day in Scott county Thursday/Friday. I also know that Lexington area schools typically do not close for a dusting!! I will take that as a good sign. Especially for eastern ky schools to get a snow day!!
    Idc how much it snows as long as there are snow days involved!

  12. BubbaG says:

    Seems more of a chance for snow for Thursday than the weekend, meaning probably not much for the weekend.

  13. Cold Rain says:

    Really odd run of the Nam..Models..What a waste of taxpayer’s money..Should be run twice a day..

  14. Bjenks says:

    Until late tomorrow or Wed I will not trust any model. I will say the Japanese Model has held true with a big hit on all of Ky for that past couple days. IMO a pretty reliable model.

    Thanks Chris for keeping us informed.

  15. Todd says:

    it would be frustrating for states south of here getting a nice snow while Kentucky sits on the dry cold sidelines, hope the more northern track comes into play?

  16. LOUsnoluvr says:

    Thanks for the ‘musings’ CB! It will be interesting to see what happens here in east Louisville Thursday night and then into the weekend. Needing some sled time!

  17. Prelude says:

    Why just east Louisville?

  18. corey says:

    Canadian model much farther north and west

  19. BubbaG says:

    Be interesting to see CB’s take 🙂 Pragmatic view being: Anything accept the more solid frozen stuff is a win. Nothing at all included.

  20. MarkLex says:

    Looking at the late week/ weekend daytime high temps forecast for KLEX – they show mid 20s to lower 30s. To me, that doesn’t seem like horribly strong arctic air – so perhaps a northwest shift is possible. I guess we will see

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