All Eyes On A Winter Weather Setup

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have one more March-feeling day before some dramatic changes press into the bluegrass state. These changes will bring arctic air into town, with the increasing threat to put snow on the ground before the week is over.

Before we get to the winter weather part of the program, we still have numerous showers out there today. Another rumble of thunder will also be possible with temps holding between 55-60 for most of the day…

Arctic air then surges in here overnight and early Wednesday. A few snowflakes may be right behind this front as readings drop into the upper 20s and low 30s then hold there all day.

The scenario for the end of the week into the weekend continues to be a little problematic. The late night forecast models are trying to take our Friday/Saturday system back toward the north and west. I will get to that in a moment, because we need to talk about a light snowfall ahead of that for Thursday into Thursday night.

You can see this system showing up on the NAM…

nam

That’s likely a little underdone with the coverage. In looking at this system, there is a good chance for most of the state to get in on a light snowfall during this time. With temps solidly below freezing, some slick roads would develop.

The Canadian Model also shows the Thursday system very well, and is now trying to pull the second storm farther north and west. It actually brushes southeastern Kentucky with additional accumulating snows …

canadian

That’s a pretty big jump from the earlier run, and the European Model did the same…

euro-2

The GFS Parallel is farthest north of them all, bringing snow to much of the state…

gfs

This system is just getting into the area to where it can be properly sampled and ingested into the computer models. There is still a lot of time and room for adjustments with this system over the next few days.

Very cold air comes in behind this for the weekend and the Canadian is goingย crazy with the cold…

canadian

I doubt the numbers get THAT cold, but it’s giving you an idea of the air mass we are dealing with.

I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a great Tuesday and take care.


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50 Responses to All Eyes On A Winter Weather Setup

  1. which way is the wind blowing says:

    It appears at this time the majority of the Commonwealth needs to be rooting for an over achieving system on Thursday.
    The Saturday system appears it prefers short pants and sandals.
    I know it is to early to throw in the beach towel but all we might recieve is another sunburn again.

  2. SHAAK says:

    NW shift, please don’t let us down here in KY!

    • Terry says:

      I am not buying the Arctic air crushing the second storm for two reasons: 1st, the Arctic air really isn’t that strong with the high building in. 2nd, the jet looks to be just to sutheast of most of KY possibly on the KY/TN border… I think we are definitely in the game for a possible strong system and northwest shift late Friday!

  3. David in Gtown says:

    In one wants snow in KY this weekend, the maps today look perfect.

  4. sloppyjoe says:

    wsaz 7 day says sunny & cold this weekend. no mention whatsoever of snow. but they have been wrong before ๐Ÿ™‚

  5. jim b says:

    Of course this is going to seen negative to some, not meant to be at all, it’s just Ky weather. It takes perfect scenarios around here for a good snow, just reality…..so, yawn meter is still a strong 10 through the weekend, and what does fall is likely not to stick. Maybe the next one Will provide that perfect scenario for snow lovers.

    • Clarkie says:

      Yeah that snow melts fast at 10 degrees

    • BubbaG says:

      How can folks be negative after three record snows in less that n one year over the past two winters? Folks that did not get the snow- I can understand, but most got at least one big snow in the past two winters.

      Another big snow after three in the past two winters? My back says, “Dis 2 muuch”. I would like a snowman maker without giant heavy snow drifts again- that’s enough ๐Ÿ™‚

  6. Drew says:

    What time does that look like it will hit on Thursday? Anyone?

  7. Drew says:

    Thanks! I figured being two days away the models would have a grasp on the snow by now!

  8. Bjenks says:

    Been in this game far to long to write off any senirio from cold and dry to ice and rain. Storm hasn’t even reached the coast, until then the computer models will all show something different. I personally feel good about a nice snow for all or most of the state.

    Thanks CB and

  9. EF5snowfall says:

    Just let the idea of any storm go.it will save the disappointment. Looks warm and rainy for at least a month.

    • Bjenks says:

      Where is the fun in that? It is winter time and a chance at a decent snow so why not be optimistic at least. If I want to talk warm and rainy, I will sign off and come back in the spring.

    • Terry says:

      I understand your realistic approach to prevent diappointment, but you need to be a little positive as the data does suggest some potential!

      If you continue with such negatively, I suggest changing your name to EF0SNOWFALL (lol in good humor only)

  10. Bjenks says:

    If snow beckons snow then the Thursday system could be a major player in the track of the second Low.

  11. Troy says:

    I’m thinking, enjoy the dusting Thursday. The NW shift isn’t gonna help us this weekend. The system is staying south.

  12. Prelude says:

    We don’t get any snow on Thursday or this upcoming weekend the next 10-14 days looking not to promising. The lack of snow cover in the US is pathetic.

    • BubbaG says:

      West and north states have gotten lots of snow already. More than a lot want. I prefer our weather to theirs ๐Ÿ™‚ The stuff is pretty to look at, but the practical aspect is meh.

  13. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Fingers crossed for an overachiever on Thursday and a north shift with the Saturday event. Hey, a guy can hope, right?! Rodger in Dodger

  14. MarkLex says:

    This arctic air coming in (based on temp forecasts for late week/weekend sure don’t look that dramatically cold. mid to upper 20s is not that bad……so maybe the northwest shift will happen.

  15. Brian says:

    I no longer see a link to subscribe to the blog. Can somebody tell me if that’s still available? My poor old refresh button can’t handle this winter weather.

  16. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    Update????

  17. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Latest GFS showing very light snows Thursday for KY (maybe an inch) and Sat event still way south and not as impressive with precip totals either. ๐Ÿ™ Rodger in Dodger

  18. Cold Rain says:

    GFS keeps going south..I say good for them…I’m sure some in the deep south has never seen snow before..

  19. upslope says:

    The NW trend is real …and its coming

  20. Jeff Hamlin says:

    Anybody know a good college for a degree in Negative Armchair Meteorology?

  21. Jimbo says:

    Well one bright spot in another disappointing start to Winter. The rains this year haven’t been the cold 35 degree rains we usually get. This year the rains have been 50 degree or higher. I would rather have the milder rains than the ones that torture us right on the freezing line.

  22. Oh Hail No! says:

    It sounds about right that the year I move from southern KY to northern KY is the winter the NW trend stops being a thing. I did get to experience about 2 feet of snow two winters in a row in Bowling Green, so I guess I shouldn’t be too greedy after getting 6 winters worth of snow in 2 years.

  23. EF5snowfall says:

    Very boring beginning of jan.mets. just have no more clue than the rest of us.

  24. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Watching yo see how it plays out. And fir the next update.

  25. Bjenks says:

    Next blog update coming. Don’t see it changing course. Tonight and tomorrow will be the ones that really mean anything.

    I believe this Low is coming in off the Washington coast. So that means it will exit the east coast somewhere near NY. If it gets below the Apps the East coast will get hammered. We need it to stay on this side of the Apps to have a chance of a big snow. Depends how far south it digs. Still holding out with all players on the table. Worst being cold and dry.

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