Good Tuesday, everyone. We have one more March-feeling day before some dramatic changes press into the bluegrass state. These changes will bring arctic air into town, with the increasing threat to put snow on the ground before the week is over.
Before we get to the winter weather part of the program, we still have numerous showers out there today. Another rumble of thunder will also be possible with temps holding between 55-60 for most of the day…
Arctic air then surges in here overnight and early Wednesday. A few snowflakes may be right behind this front as readings drop into the upper 20s and low 30s then hold there all day.
The scenario for the end of the week into the weekend continues to be a little problematic. The late night forecast models are trying to take our Friday/Saturday system back toward the north and west. I will get to that in a moment, because we need to talk about a light snowfall ahead of that for Thursday into Thursday night.
You can see this system showing up on the NAM…
That’s likely a little underdone with the coverage. In looking at this system, there is a good chance for most of the state to get in on a light snowfall during this time. With temps solidly below freezing, some slick roads would develop.
The Canadian Model also shows the Thursday system very well, and is now trying to pull the second storm farther north and west. It actually brushes southeastern Kentucky with additional accumulating snows …
That’s a pretty big jump from the earlier run, and the European Model did the same…
The GFS Parallel is farthest north of them all, bringing snow to much of the state…
This system is just getting into the area to where it can be properly sampled and ingested into the computer models. There is still a lot of time and room for adjustments with this system over the next few days.
Very cold air comes in behind this for the weekend and the Canadian is goingย crazy with the cold…
I doubt the numbers get THAT cold, but it’s giving you an idea of the air mass we are dealing with.
I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a great Tuesday and take care.
It appears at this time the majority of the Commonwealth needs to be rooting for an over achieving system on Thursday.
The Saturday system appears it prefers short pants and sandals.
I know it is to early to throw in the beach towel but all we might recieve is another sunburn again.
NW shift, please don’t let us down here in KY!
I am not buying the Arctic air crushing the second storm for two reasons: 1st, the Arctic air really isn’t that strong with the high building in. 2nd, the jet looks to be just to sutheast of most of KY possibly on the KY/TN border… I think we are definitely in the game for a possible strong system and northwest shift late Friday!
In one wants snow in KY this weekend, the maps today look perfect.
wsaz 7 day says sunny & cold this weekend. no mention whatsoever of snow. but they have been wrong before ๐
Of course this is going to seen negative to some, not meant to be at all, it’s just Ky weather. It takes perfect scenarios around here for a good snow, just reality…..so, yawn meter is still a strong 10 through the weekend, and what does fall is likely not to stick. Maybe the next one Will provide that perfect scenario for snow lovers.
Yeah that snow melts fast at 10 degrees
How can folks be negative after three record snows in less that n one year over the past two winters? Folks that did not get the snow- I can understand, but most got at least one big snow in the past two winters.
Another big snow after three in the past two winters? My back says, “Dis 2 muuch”. I would like a snowman maker without giant heavy snow drifts again- that’s enough ๐
What time does that look like it will hit on Thursday? Anyone?
It is wayy too far out for timing. some models dont even develop snow on Thursday.
1:35 pm EST
Thanks! I figured being two days away the models would have a grasp on the snow by now!
Been in this game far to long to write off any senirio from cold and dry to ice and rain. Storm hasn’t even reached the coast, until then the computer models will all show something different. I personally feel good about a nice snow for all or most of the state.
Thanks CB and
Just let the idea of any storm go.it will save the disappointment. Looks warm and rainy for at least a month.
Where is the fun in that? It is winter time and a chance at a decent snow so why not be optimistic at least. If I want to talk warm and rainy, I will sign off and come back in the spring.
I understand your realistic approach to prevent diappointment, but you need to be a little positive as the data does suggest some potential!
If you continue with such negatively, I suggest changing your name to EF0SNOWFALL (lol in good humor only)
If snow beckons snow then the Thursday system could be a major player in the track of the second Low.
I’m thinking, enjoy the dusting Thursday. The NW shift isn’t gonna help us this weekend. The system is staying south.
Oh you DID NOT use the D word!
We don’t get any snow on Thursday or this upcoming weekend the next 10-14 days looking not to promising. The lack of snow cover in the US is pathetic.
West and north states have gotten lots of snow already. More than a lot want. I prefer our weather to theirs ๐ The stuff is pretty to look at, but the practical aspect is meh.
Fingers crossed for an overachiever on Thursday and a north shift with the Saturday event. Hey, a guy can hope, right?! Rodger in Dodger
There’s some banding of snow showing up on Thursday on some of the models but not for everyone as it looks now if your south of I-64 or more likely the Parkways 1-3 looks like a good bet as of now. Everyone else around an inch. I imagine Thursday’s event if it holds together would be the first Winter Weather Advisory of the season.
What’s it look like for I64 near ashland?
1-2
Thanks Prelude, are you thinking around noon for the snow to hit in the ashland area?
Mid-to late afternoon
A WWA was issued for most of KY back in December.
Wimpy Weather Advisory ๐
This arctic air coming in (based on temp forecasts for late week/weekend sure don’t look that dramatically cold. mid to upper 20s is not that bad……so maybe the northwest shift will happen.
I no longer see a link to subscribe to the blog. Can somebody tell me if that’s still available? My poor old refresh button can’t handle this winter weather.
I almost like this map out by the CPC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png
That really needs to move NW! LOL
I said almost. Maybe move 100 miles for me would be ideal.
Update????
Latest GFS showing very light snows Thursday for KY (maybe an inch) and Sat event still way south and not as impressive with precip totals either. ๐ Rodger in Dodger
Only an inch??
GFS keeps going south..I say good for them…I’m sure some in the deep south has never seen snow before..
Don’t forget they are not equipped to handle it. It wouldn’t take much to cripple them.
The NW trend is real …and its coming
What do you mean?
Not this time… Deep south tracks have no NW shift
Anybody know a good college for a degree in Negative Armchair Meteorology?
Well one bright spot in another disappointing start to Winter. The rains this year haven’t been the cold 35 degree rains we usually get. This year the rains have been 50 degree or higher. I would rather have the milder rains than the ones that torture us right on the freezing line.
Agree but also thinking that doesn’t bode well for snow this year (or beyond). Rodger in Dodger
It sounds about right that the year I move from southern KY to northern KY is the winter the NW trend stops being a thing. I did get to experience about 2 feet of snow two winters in a row in Bowling Green, so I guess I shouldn’t be too greedy after getting 6 winters worth of snow in 2 years.
In NKY we received a dusting both times.
Very boring beginning of jan.mets. just have no more clue than the rest of us.
Thanks Chris. Watching yo see how it plays out. And fir the next update.
Next blog update coming. Don’t see it changing course. Tonight and tomorrow will be the ones that really mean anything.
I believe this Low is coming in off the Washington coast. So that means it will exit the east coast somewhere near NY. If it gets below the Apps the East coast will get hammered. We need it to stay on this side of the Apps to have a chance of a big snow. Depends how far south it digs. Still holding out with all players on the table. Worst being cold and dry.