Good Tuesday afternoon, everyone. We are about to go into a very cold period that will likely put snow on the ground across much of our part of the world. I should have a first call map out later today, but I wanted to drop by for a quick update on what the forecast models look like.

As arctic air surges in here tonight and Wednesday, some snow flurries will be possible. From there, we watch a disturbance pass across the region Thursday into Thursday night. This will have a band of light snow with it and it’s likely to put down accumulations.

The past few snowfall runs from the GFS…

gfs-snow

gfs-snow-2

The individual members of the GFS Ensembles have some potential…

gfs-snow-3

The WPC has even placed eastern Kentucky in a slight risk for 4″+ of snow through Friday morning…

hpc

I think you could probably extend that into eastern Tennessee, too. For the record, I do expect slick travel will lead to some cancellations and delays Thursday and/or Friday.

One thing to watch for with this, is some enhancement of the snow taking across the central and east by Thursday night into Friday morning. The Canadian shows this…

canadian

The European Model also has this, and then shows a very close call with the late Friday-Saturday storm system…

euro-2

That brushes southeastern Kentucky with some snows, and the Canadian does the same thing…

canadian-2

It really would not take much model correction to pull that storm farther to the north and west, and that’s what we will watch for as we get within 72 hours of it.

Regardless, the temps late this week through the weekend look frigid. Single digit lows are possible from Saturday through Monday. The Canadian continues to be the coldest of the bunch with the low temps…

canadian-3

Even if we add several degrees onto those numbers, it’s still bitterly cold!

I will update things later today. Have a good one and take care.