Winter Crashes In Over The Next Few Days

Good Wednesday, everyone. Old Man Winter is about ready to press into the bluegrass state with arctic cold temps and our first widespread snowfall of the season. This will be complete with some slick roads and likely school delays and cancellations.

MUCH colder air continues to press into the region today as temps drop into the upper 20s and low 30s early on. A passing snowflake is possible, and I can’t rule out a slick spot as wet roads may ice up in some areas.

The fun begins on Thursday as light to moderate snow races in here through the day and takes us into early Friday. This is not a huge snowfall, but will cause roads to become slick or even snow-covered at times. Here’s my New Call For Snowfall…


Don’t always just look at the high number and assume every area maxes out. I’m talking in general terms. Southern and southwestern parts of the state are the enigma of this forecast for me. I’m torn onΒ  what to do there, but will leave as is for the time being. The Canadian certainly says I should be a little more generous with the 1″-3″…


I will have , at least, two more updates snowfall forecasts later today, culminating with the all important Last Call For Snowfall. πŸ™‚

What about the weekend system? I’m still not totally ready to write this off as the Canadian and European Models are still too close for comfort. The Canadian is weaker, but still brushes far southeastern Kentucky with some light snow…


The European Model is MUCH stronger and also brushes the southeast with some Friday night and Saturday morning light snow…


The stronger that thing gets, the better the chance it has of coming a little farther west and north. The European then takes that thing up the east coast as a snowstorm.

Regardless, frigid temps are in store for the weekend into Monday. I’ve noticed the GFS is finally spitting out single digits for our region. Fashionably late to the party, I see. πŸ˜‰

The Canadian may be too extreme with the cold, but dang…


I will shoot you some updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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41 Responses to Winter Crashes In Over The Next Few Days

  1. Dale says:

    Hoping we are on the heavy side 3″

  2. Dale says:

    Any more snow chances in the next week cb?

  3. feederband says:

    How many loaves will this be? Looks like one loaf and one gallon.
    Thanks CB.

  4. Blizzardtim says:

    I went from being in the zone of heavy snow from weekend storm to being in the donut hole of snow to the north on Thursday and snow to my south in GA on friday-sunday..Oh the joys of living in the south as a snow lover..Lol..

    • Bjenks says:

      Don’t fret the second system is weak and will only be dumping 1-3 across the south. Not like the storm the models where depicting days ago with a wide path 8-15 inches. However last night he said “there was wiggle room”and today “not writing it off”. So it is still on the table in his eyes. Not sitting in the middle, but teetering on the edge.

  5. John-Austin says:

    Thanks for the update Chris! I will have all of my students and teacher friends asking me about what you’re saying today! Looks like we should get at least one snow day out of this!

  6. Drew says:

    What time will snow arrive tomorrow? Any chance of a snow day tomorrow or am early dismissal?

    • Bjenks says:

      Depends on location. CB said, “Races in here through the day”. If you live in Western part of the state I would say before noon and the Eastern part afternoon. Your snow day would be Friday regardless.

      • Isaiah Montgomery says:

        The NAM has snow moving in the far West part of KY by around Midnight, reaching Louisville and the WV border by around 3. It has a very fast moving system. Heaviest snow in North Central KY from 6-Noon. It has snow turning into rain in the far SW corner of the state by Noon.

  7. Drew says:

    Around the Ashland area. Hoping for the snow to roll in around noon and an early dismissal for local schools!!

    • Bjenks says:

      Not seeing early dismissal, but a snow day Friday might be possible.

      • Prelude says:

        Maybe not for Ashland Ky and that might even be debatable. Louisville schools I can absolutely see early dismal especially if snow accumulates on the roads. Depending on how fast snow moves in I can see some schools calling off.

  8. Hey EF5snowfall, now you can be realistic about our chances

  9. Marc Windberg says:

    I need to unplug from weather data.

  10. jim b says:

    Basically a crop dusting of snow for tomorrow, and this weekend system is nonexistent….ol him b is out til next time zzzzzzzzz

  11. EF5snowfall says:

    Looks like a inch or less in Kentucky. The heavier snow will shift northwest into ohio.Take that to the bank.

    • Dale says:

      I’m glad you’re not in charge of my finances, jk

    • Prelude says:

      Thats strange because the jet stream energy as of now looks to stay south of Ohio pretty much focus on Kentucky and what’s even more odd is that the NWS offices out of Ohio agree and the NWS offices out of Kentucky agree and the NWS offices out of Indiana agree. I guarantee when 2-3 inch snowfall occurs EF5 will be nowhere to be found, crickets!!!

    • MikeM says:

      Some of these negative naysayers must change their names every winter. i keep asking myself where have I read this crap before.

      • Bjenks says:


        • Prelude says:

          EF5 just starving for attention. There’s one in every crowd

          • Mike S says:

            Admittedly the sweet spot of last night’s NAM run (haven’t seen the 12z yet though) and the latest Louisville NWS forecast discussion keeps axis of 1-3″ along and north of I-64. Southern OH may see 1-2″ according to Wilmington NWS. Areas south of Parkways may only see an inch or less. CB’s call similar.

    • BubbaG says:

      Are you making this up? No model shows this or an average trend of models do.

    • Chris Bailey says:

      Trolling will get you booted from here. I appreciate everyone visiting this site and commenting, but consider this a warning.

  12. Troy says:

    Not writing the winter off yet… Wondering what the second half of Jan and Feb will bring.

    • Troy says:

      On the second thought, this storm might just be a big overachiever. Jackson NWS says less than a half inch Thurs and less than a half Fri for Middlesboro… This almost always translates to 4-5 times the amount forecast.

      • Terry says:

        So true…I am sitting waiting to see my doctor here in Middleboro at the moment reading the blog. Although it want be the pretty, snowman type, we could definitely over achieve with high snow per liquid ratio!

        ….Almost always come out more than the conservative amounts the local news gives! I still think SE KY needs to keep watching the second storm as, time and time again, we tend to get a little more given the deep south track but occasionally will miss all together!

  13. Cold Rain says:

    All it takes is a little more robust system coming out the Mississippi valley for a NW Shift then SE Ky would be in the game..Should be higher ratios also..

  14. Drew says:

    Does anyone have a link to the newest NAM?

  15. SnowLover13 says:

    What about South central KY (Adair Co.) Can anyone tell me what it looks like for us? I’m not good at reading the maps:(

  16. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Fun times on Mr Bailey’s blog. I’ll be happy with an inch at my house. Gonna warm up though next week πŸ™ Rodger in Dodger

  17. Bjenks says:

    Was going wait until the midday update before going to get a ton of salt that may, of may not, sit in my truck until March. How I just love Ky winters.

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