A Close Call For More Snowfall

Good Friday, everyone. Old Man Winter arrived fashionably late to the season, but he mad a nice entrance with a widespread 1″-4″ snowfall across Kentucky. Now comes a very close call with another snowfall.. or two over the next few days.

Overall, I’m very happy with the forecast I put out with the recent snows. Outside of it arriving early in the east and southeast, this system behaved itself. Leftover light snows and flurries will hang around into the start of the day, then we focus on a weak light snow maker skirting across Tennessee.

The models show this bringing a period of light snow across southern and southeastern parts of the state. Here’s the GFS…

gfsThe NAM is a little more concentrated…

namYou can track all that on your regional radar…

Highs today will generally range from the upper teens to low 20s, but gusty winds make it feel like single digits for much of the day.

 

A major winter storm is going to develop just to our south and east tonight into Saturday. This will be a razor thin close call for the southeastern part of the state. Watch how the NAM handles today’s light snow then the east coast storm…

nam-4

That run of the NAM actually puts down some decent totals along our Virginia border counties into Saturday morning…

nam-2

That same run of the NAM then takes that storm right up the east coast…

nam-3

Just how much, if any, snow actually falls in the southeast remains to be seen. That’s a heck of a setup and one that is THISCLOSE to impacting much more of our region.

Temps take center stage for the rest of the area. Highs range from the upper teens to low 20s, with daytime wind chills in the single digits. Early morning wind chills can drop below zero as actual thermometer readings hit the single digits.

I will hook you up with updates later today. Have a great Friday and enjoy the snow day. Take care.


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57 Responses to A Close Call For More Snowfall

  1. Braxton says:

    Thanks CB! Is there anyway this storm could have the northwest trend and effect central and eastern Kentucky/western WV?

  2. Blizzardtim says:

    We still here in east TN..On the threshold of 2-4″ or a WHOLE LOT MORE..MODEL HAYHEM! as usual..

    • Andy Rose says:

      I hope it works out better for you than it did us. We ended up with a coating if we comine all the snow that fell yesterday

      • TennMark says:

        Yea, Nashville basically only got a dusting yesterday.

        The next wave is already making it’s presence known; it’s been snowing in Memphis the last few hours…. and this disturbance will apparently be followed by a bigger winter wave that will effect the Deep South, the Carolinas and then the northeast.

    • KRinRichmond says:

      Where you at in east Tn? I was just down there last week. I’m grew up in Kingsport. We used to have to nice little snows back in the old school days. One year, we were out of school for like 56 weeks. Mid 70s I think it was.

  3. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Thelma Lou is very disappointed in yesterdays non event for Wayne County. The Northern half received a coating & the Southern end about a dozen flurries or so. The nws has temps into the 50s for us next week.

  4. Jared from Letcher County says:

    Looks like that band of snow on radar is making a beeline for southeastern Kentucky.

    Hazard picked up about 3 inches of snow yesterday, yet about 20 miles to the south there was only maybe a half inch or so.

    • Terry says:

      Less than a half inch in Harlan:(

      I have some hope of getting the “edge” tonight off a possible record breaker for NC and surrounding states!

  5. Dorton says:

    I have between 3-4 inches of snow from yesterday and last night in Southern Pike County. Going to be a close cut off as to whether we will add to that total or not.

  6. Jimbo says:

    I hope those of us who got a few inches yesterday enjoyed it. Looks like a major warmup after the weekend. I fear it was our only shot for a LONG time.

  7. TennMark says:

    All three radars under the control of NWS Paducah……. Ft Campbell KY, Evansville IN and Paducah……. are all down at the moment 🙁 .

    At least the radars at NWS Memphis and NWS Nashville are well indicating the snow currently across western Tennessee. But for western Kentucky, one needs to use alternative radars until NWS Paducah gets their three radars up again.

  8. Turmoil Tim says:

    Torch coming

  9. KRinRichmond says:

    Kind odd to see a system just confined to the Tennessee borders. Kinda non traditional jet stream

  10. Andy Rose says:

    Temp here this AM starting out what the high was suppose to be today

  11. John says:

    I’m telling you! Bell, Harlan and Letcher Co’s better watch out tonight! Each model run is pushing this thing farther to the Northwest! I wouldn’t be surprise if you guys wake up to 4-6″ Saturday morning!

  12. bm says:

    I be dang if it’ goes north of us and then next one goes south of us. Oh well life is like a box of chocolate don’t get every thing you want!!

  13. Lucy says:

    Just looking at weather for next week seeing that precipitation is coming, but temperatures warm up again! It’s time to get this right and have moisture AND cold together. I am expecting this to happen. The southeast is getting a storm, and next up–Kentuckiana.

  14. retro fetch says:

    Nice job on your snowfall call, Chris! We ended up with 2 1/2″ here in Lexington.

    I’m excited for the folks down in southern KY, fixing to get in on some good snow.

  15. Troy says:

    Looks as though the NAM has taken a shift back to the south on the 06Z run for the southern storm.
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017010606/namconus_asnow_seus_19.png

  16. bm says:

    looks of the rader looks like the south system has push up north a bit it’s brushing by Paducah and Bowling Green

    • Troy says:

      That is the first wave coming through. The main branch of the southern system coming through tonight has shifted back to the south and east which if holds true puts SE KY out of the action. Also NWS Morristown has downscaled the system from a winter storm watch to a winter weather advisory in Tennessee.

      • Terry says:

        It appears that the first little wave may over achieve for far SE KY and TN with main storm not having much of an impact on the area The snow is quickly coating everything here in Harlan, and with these temps, the snow has a fluff factor going!

  17. Bjenks says:

    Ok. First ankle biter of the season, puts Louisville right at average with 3.2 inches. To get our average of 12 inches we will need three more ankle biters or one nice storm. Going to warm up after this week and the storm next week has the ice potential, but I don’t see snow. Might just be an early start to spring this year.

    • bm says:

      Bjenks easy, don’t jump to conclusions you never know what ole man winter got in store for the next couple or three months. I have seen some of our worst snow storms happen in our next of woods here in ky in March.

      • Bobt says:

        Some nice storms in March, but those are mostly here today and gone tomorrow type snows. I’m okay with that though. After a couple of days I’m ready for it to be gone.

      • Terry says:

        Yeah, the infamous Blizzard of 93…was 10 years old up to past my waiste here in Harlan with a solid 30 inches outside of drifts..AWESOME!!

    • David in Gtown says:

      The 10 and 20 inchers in Georgetown a few years ago happened on President’s Day and then again 2 weeks later in March. It’s not over til it’s over.

    • Mike says:

      Perhaps 1 to 1.5 inches in my part of Richmond… With the exception of the last three years – the 1 to 1.5 inches is completely normal.

  18. MikeM says:

    I wish Chris would do a Mid winter forecast update just to give his thoughts on temps, actual snow chances for the rest of Jan and Feb.
    that way I can ignore the blowtorch naysayers and all their
    hot air

  19. GW says:

    We need to make a common terms checklist for those reading these posts. A list of terms like Virga, ankle biter, blowtorch, early spring, etc…Are you all REALLY that broken hearted over a snowstorm???

  20. Tim in TN says:

    NAM had the best take on what is happening along the TN/KY border. Everything is a litter more north with this first wave. We are getting hammered for an hour or two here in Clay Co. TN

  21. BubbaG says:

    The title from a demographic standpoint is slightly deceptive 😉

  22. LD says:

    Finally made it to the 1″ min of the forecast, so it was technically successful. Madison and state and city road crews didn’t get started here until it had been snowing for hours, no pretreat work before hand either. Really odd to see it snowing for so long and sticking and just nothing being done. I’d never seen anything like it before.

    Soak up the winter views as it may be the only one you get outside of an ice storm for the remainder of the season. If I remember correctly, the CB winter forecast stated that the bulk of winter weather would be Dec through mid-Jan with milder weather after that.

    • laggy marie says:

      He has also said numerous times in the last cple wks that he was torn on how to precede at times, and that it was starting to lean toward more cold and snow than he was initially seeing. The indicators were not as apparent when he did his original forecast for winter. If the pattern continues, like he has said this week, we may be in for more harsh winter than thought.

  23. Ol coal miner says:

    What’s the chances of the southern storm to still hit SE Ky tonight? It’s pouring the snow in Whitesburg right now!

  24. Jared from Letcher County says:

    Absolutely pouring of snow here now. Picked up a good half inch here in about 30 minutes.

  25. Tom says:

    Just checked Lexington and saw their snow ratio yesterday was 20-21. Louisville had a snow ratio above that…very dry snow.

  26. appsman says:

    3-4 total inches here in Leslie County. Light snow falling again now, looks like we may add another 1/2 inch today.

  27. Cold Rain says:

    Looks like a nice band of snow in letcher moving into SW Pikeville..

  28. SH says:

    My goodness people, get a grip on the negativity… I understand being realistic about snow chances, but seriously it’s enough to drive someone to drink. I read the comments section to get insights on models, etc. in between CB’s blog posts as well as weather reports from other readers… but it’s almost not worth it! If snow means that much to you, you might want to live somewhere else.

  29. Crystal in PIkeville says:

    PIkeville has had snow all morning stopped currently.

  30. KP says:

    I need to get my dog to NCSU Oncology by Tuesday. (Raleigh) I’m leaving Sunday and stopping in Asheville. I’m being told to expect a major disaster. Can’t they clear I-40 after it stops snowing Saturday morning?

  31. Cold Rain says:

    GFS sure has been spitting out a huge ice storm for late next week..Good signal for that to happen on the models….Where is the next question..

    • Terry says:

      It does look interesting for the western half of the state, but thankfully, too warm south and east with plain ole rain again.

  32. Mike says:

    About 1 inch total in Richmond. A stray flake in the air this morning… Much like all the recent winters… up until the last couple where we got a lot!

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