Tracking A Volatile Week Ahead

Good Monday, everyone. We are coming off a harsh stretch of weather across the Commonwealth of Kentucky, complete with bitterly cold temps and snow. One would think this may be a hard act to follow. but Mother Nature isn’t in a very nice mood. This is a very extreme weather pattern setting up in the coming days.

Clouds are rolling through the state today as temps rebound into the 30s for highs. These clouds may spit out some snowflakes at times early on…

Winds are going to crank later tonight into Tuesday as milder air begins to push in. Gusts to 40mph will be possible and this kicks off a very windy few days of weather.

Showers will then develop and move in here on Tuesday as a cold front moves in. That front will then put the brakes on and head back to the north Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some thunder will be possible during this time. Here’s the NAM…

nam

Temps by Thursday can surge to 60 on a strong southwesterly wind flow. This is ahead of another arctic front with temps -20 to -30 behind it in the upper Midwest. Cold air is much more dense and heavy than warm air, and it can be tough to slow down.

The southern edge of that arctic air spreads out and likely presses into Kentucky for Friday into Saturday. Just how much of a surge it gets into the state is going to be crucial, as a lot of precipitation will be breaking out at the same time. Check the temps on the new GFS…

gfs-2

That’s a lot colder than previous runs of the GFS, and is my concern going forward. With warmer air on top of cold temps at the surface, you can get a nasty mix of precipitation. The GFS…

gfs

The model is showing a 1052mb arctic high moving across the Great Lakes. That would be funneling in low level cold air from the north, as the flow upstairs is coming from the south and southwest.

Here’s what that particular run of the model shows for Freezing rain accumulation…

gfs-snow

Sleet accumulation…

gfs-snow-2

All of that can shift farther south or north depending on how the temperature battle goes. Will the arctic high to the north flex and drill the low-level cold in here? Will the southern surge of spring temps be able to hold on just enough to keep the 32 degree line north of the Ohio River?  It’s going to be a heck of a fight, but a fight that could have significant implications on our weather.

The latest European Model is close to the GFS…

euro-4

What’s amazing about this is, we could go from the 60s to ice in less than 24 hours, then go from ice to 60 over the following 24 hours. That, my friends, would be wild.

Not to be lost in the shuffle is the potential for a lot of precipitation to fall over the next week to 10 days. Here’s hoping none of it is in ice and that the rain is spread out over a long enough time period to preclude flooding.

I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.


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54 Responses to Tracking A Volatile Week Ahead

  1. Cold Rain says:

    Warm air always wins the battle in Ky..Should win this one also..Lets hope so anyways..Still a real bad event for other places if they just get half of what some models are showing..

  2. MikeM says:

    I’m not liking the sound of any of it.

  3. Bobt says:

    Instead of a cold November rain, we are looking at mild January rain. Hopefully the warm and rain wins the battle (without floods). Ice is not a good thing.

  4. BubbaG says:

    Looks like north of the Kentucky river might want to watch out just in case the cold air moves a little more south.

  5. RainOnly says:

    What I’m seeing good is that the 32 degree line is along the OH River, and north. That will be key to keep the ice away from Kentucky. I’ll take rain all day and every day over ice.

  6. Christopher says:

    What I’ve learned most on this blog. Warm air almost always wins in KY. Hoping that is the case this time.

  7. bgbecky says:

    This blog post…uuuuuuggggg….nothing I like about it! Here’s to hoping warm air wins and none of KY gets the ICE!

  8. Bjenks says:

    I am 99.99999% certain that all of Ky stays above 32 and the FENCE sets up along the Ohio River. Cold air is like every horse I have been on, two to be exact lol, and they put the breaks on when they hit water. Get your duck boots out you are going to need them.

  9. Lucy says:

    Waiting until Wednesday to get a better grip on warm vs cold although past experience nudges me in the direction of thinking Kentucky will be in the 40’s with rain. Even so, there could always be a cold blast that reaches down to central KY, and then snow!

  10. Blizzardtim says:

    I say enjoy the warmth while we can.. Because just from what I can see and gather January will crash into a very wintery February…

  11. Terry says:

    Out of any location in KY, my neck of the woods in SE KY is the least likely to get significant icing from this type of set-up as the Arctic air will have to go a couple more hundred miles south than currently predicted and over come the west side of the app mts. Regardless, anything can happen, and I have time and time again, flooding in SE KY while central and west get significant ice from events like this.. don’t let the guard down this early in the game!

    • Troy says:

      While I hope all our friends here in KY miss ALL icing events, I’m thankful that at least this time around, we here in the southern and SE counties look to be free and clear.

      • Terry says:

        I am not saying we never get ice, but have you noticed how much less ice events we get in this part of the state compared to central and western areas? I have noticed this since I was a kid and about the only conclusion I can draw is our topography helps minimize the warm air inversion over top of cold air as (most of the time) we tend to get an injection of warm air out of the TN VALLEY when lows parallel the Ohio River…thoughts?

  12. Jimbo says:

    All the forecasts in the tri-state where I live have highs in the 50’s through Saturday. I don’t see ice being an issue with those temps.

  13. Cold Rain says:

    No blocking the strong high will scoot east quickly..Enjoy the rain and 60’s ..Doubt if the high gets as strong as modeled anyways..

  14. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Newest GFS model nudges cold (and ice) a bit further back north. I’m expecting a cold rain for 99% of this event. The high pressure would need to press harder and drive the low pressure system through TN for KY to get much frozen. All indications are that won’t happen. Rodger in Dodger

  15. Mike S says:

    I would go with the Euro this far out…most of Kentucky should be in the clear, as far as ice goes, but far northern Kentucky, well….

  16. jim b says:

    Cold rain boys and girls, although it is fun to build up the drama of what it will ultimately do…..yawn meter moving up to a 9.5

  17. Matthew says:

    I remember a scenario like this a few years ago. At my place it rained a lot. School however was cancelled. We go into town early and it seems fine and decide to take a trip to Morehead. About a quarter of the way things changed. About half the country looked crystallized from the ice. Just amazing and cool to see. Note: Not saying it is ever a good thing but nature is just awesome at times.

    One other time it did not ice at our place. But just traveling across the hill from my house you could see ice everywhere and that is about half a mile. We again where on the south side of that. No power was lost anywhere but the trees and stuff were covered.

    These setups are amazing to see both on the models and in the wild when they happen. I just hope everyone that gets a lot of ice is safe and warm and hopefully there is not enough to cause power issues.

    Bailey and his bold prediction. Nobody is perfect but Bailey does such a great job you have to take his predictions as a solid indicator there is a big chance. And with ice I am positive nobody wants that. Looks like somebody could well get it though. If so, I hope that we do not see more than one of these events come around.

  18. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Thelma Lou is pretty sure this one stays north but just in case something unforseen happens she told me to bring up a couple cans of pickles to munch on.

    • Oh Hail No! says:

      I’m pretty certain this one will stay north of you in Mayberry, North Carolina. Quick question, how’s the afterlife?

  19. Jimmie says:

    12z GFS takes the icy stuff well north of KY. Getting close to the dreaded 4-5-day-out window where GFS loses storms. Hopefully this isn’t a case of that.

    The same model run is predicting a monster of a rain system to slam into California around the 25th. Mudslides, anyone?

  20. Bjenks says:

    We may need to hope for a back end loaded winter for snow. Don’t see this pattern changing anytime soon.

  21. Krissy Gamble says:

    How is it looking for western ky??

  22. Cold Rain says:

    Euro has heavier amounts mostly central Indiana,Illinois Missouri down to Oklahoma and Texas..Close for far northern Ky at the Indiana/Ohio line…we shall see..

    • Krissy Gamble says:

      I dont know how to look at the Euro, I know Chris doesnt forecast much for west ky, but I love following him and reading his updates. Is it looking like west ky could get any of this ice or is it too far North?

    • Kat says:

      Sorry to ask but when you say Central IN where are you referring to?

  23. Christopher says:

    As the day goes on and temps rise I’m thinking a cold rain for sure.
    Time to return the generator.
    At least we used the sleds this weekend.

  24. Jeff Hamlin says:

    I root for rain to wash the salt away. Save the salt crust for cooking fish. 😉

  25. Lucy says:

    Snow lovers, do not despair! There are still over eight weeks at least of snow opportunities.

  26. Kim says:

    Don’t want snow but I would much prefer the temps of this past weekend over an extended period of warmer, but rainy weather.

  27. Mike S says:

    Bummer news out of California…the famous Sequoia tree, the Pioneer Cabin, also iconically known as the tunnel tree, was toppled during an intense storm.

  28. jim b says:

    Yawn meter is at a strong 10 ladies and gentlemen….the yawn meter will remain 100% accurate. Although, this one is an easy one to predict.

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