Tracking The Active Weather Pattern

Good Tuesday, folks. Big changes are blowing in today… Literally. Gusty winds will take control of the weather as we get set for some wild temperature swings in the days ahead. With those temp swings, we are on guard for everything from thunderstorms and heavy rainfall to some freezing rain. Never a dull moment with Kentucky weather.

The current pattern of wild temperature variations is just a continuation of the pattern we have been in since late November. Normal is nowhere to be found as we have had either way above and way below normal temps. Since Thanksgiving, the cold is actually outperforming the warm across Kentucky…


That’s right, average temps across the entire state are COLDER THAN NORMAL since Thanksgiving. These wild temps swings were highlighted in the winter forecast and the reason I did not forecast a very cold and very snowy winter this year. Sorry, haters. 😉

Ok, let’s get into where we are going from here.

The day may start with some freezing rain across parts of the region. This can happen with temps slightly above freezing. How does that happen? Ground temps and road temps are below freezing, so any early rain can freeze on contact. Be advised of that possibility, especially in the north. General showers take over today with winds gusting to 40-45mph…

The front bringing today’s showers slams on the brakes just to our south and returns north as a warm front. This should cause some showers and thunderstorms to develop tonight into Wednesday…


This will also be accompanied by another round of 40-45mph wind gusts. MUCH milder air surges in ahead behind this warm front as readings soar into the 60s by Thursday. That will also bring along additional high winds as an arctic front gets close to the region Thursday night.

The NAM only goes through early Friday morning, but watch our wild this temperature trend is over the next few days…


That is really cool to see and really drives home the wild temp swings moving in here. Showers and some thunder will accompany that Thursday night temp drop. As the numbers keep dropping through the day, we will have to be on guard for some frozen precipitation.

The European Model is colder on Friday, upping the ante for some frozen stuff. From WeatherBell…


The European Model continues the colder trend for the weekend and takes Saturday night temps into the mid and upper 20s for the northern half of the state…


That shows rain in the south with a potential mix across the west and north.

The Canadian Model brings some 20s in here by Friday night…


It does not show precipitation around at that moment, but does have some ice showing up earlier in the day in the north and west…


The GFS isn’t quite as cold as the Canadian and European Models and keeps the freezing rain along and north of the Ohio River…


If the GFS is off by one degree, that’s a bad look. Ironically, the GFS does show a stripe of snow across northern Kentucky late Friday…


The GFS total precipitation forecast over the next week…


As I have said for a while, we are walking a very fine line with the weather from Friday into the weekend. It will be interesting to watch the model trends in the coming days.

I will update things later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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21 Responses to Tracking The Active Weather Pattern

  1. SHAAK says:

    Looking like just rain still in KY.

  2. Bjenks says:

    So an active, but boring weather pattern for 90 percent of the state. If you live along the Ohio River then things could get a little dICEy through the weekend. Hope the cold air wins out for everyone, but I don’t see that happing. Looks like the precipitation totals from earlier runs have gone down quite a bit. Thanks for the update CB.

  3. bgbecky says:

    Precip amounts seem to have really dropped from earlier runs! I feel like I remember seeing a number of 5-8 inches of rain possible a few days ago for the BG area and now it is less than 2. Looking like KY is going to win in the ice battle! thank goodness!

  4. Lucy says:

    We need over a foot of snow to reach CB winter forecast predictions. Since we did not have snow in December, here’s hoping we get some snow in the next few weeks. The colder than normal temperatures predicted have been there when averaged with the warmer than normal temperatures (all of these roller coaster temperature events). December was supposed to have several small snows, and I think at one time November was predicted to have an early snow for the area. Predicting weather is a science, but definitely not easy to forecast. CB is the best I have read, and he loves snow too!!

    • Lucy says:

      Rain in the forecast for the next seven days. Snow, where are you?

      • Terry says:

        Like you, I hope snow comes in the next few weeks as there is nothing worse than getting a good hit in late February or March just to watch it melt the next day thanks to higher sun angles and shorter cold spells. Plus, when it gets close to Spring, I am done with winter, but as we know in KY, weather has a mind of its own!

  5. fbm tim says:

    i live in Athens OH and they have dropped the precip amounts here to,looks like this friday into sat weather is not going to be a big deal

  6. BubbaG says:

    Wash the salt away FTW!

  7. Jimbo says:

    I like the weather to fit the Season. I really hate March weather where we go from 75 one day to 30 for two days then back to 80. It seem all of our Winter months anymore are like that.

  8. Ray says:

    I honestly hope we do not get any more snow this year. I hope we get at least 50s and 60s for the remainder of winter…70s even better. Looks like we aren’t going to be getting any snow anytime soon unless it hits during the night time hours. Then…it will melt the next day.

  9. Matthew says:

    Bailey, did you mention in another post about February? I was thinking you did but cannot remember. Is February still looking much milder?

    Also, is there any possibility we see that normal to slightly above normal snowfall?

    I know it is hard to tell “haters” from others but I certainly am not a hater. Just curious since to hit some of those snowfall numbers, especially for my area it would take a decent amount more. Definitely not counting on much more snow, if any, this year. Guess I will see.

    • Mike S says:

      I have ranted about this on my blog before. I am not going to bash CB for putting out snow numbers for an entire season or how cold it’s going to be, because his track record is really not that bad, but when readers see their specific county falling behind the numbers that CB predicted, you can only expect some backlash. For instance, it’s difficult enough to put out a 7-day forecast about snow totals for a specific county, but for an entire season…, readers can be just too picky at times. Give CB a break and see how it all works out.
      I put out predictions that say ‘above average’, ‘below average’, and ‘near average’. Then, I can let the reader use his own imagination as to what that means for his specific location. Or maybe that will encourage the reader to do his own homework to find out what amounts of snow or cold should be normally expected for his location.
      I think CB does a great job, and most of us on this forum appreciate his enthusiasm and dedication to this blog, all for our enjoyment and ‘teaching’ us about how weather works for a hard-to-forecast region as it is.

  10. bm says:

    right now our main weather element is that darn wind,it’s blowing up 40 or more mph and even higher comes to gust in my next of woods here in western,ky

  11. jim b says:

    Jim b’s bold new prediction for the winter ——- you have seen your last snow day for this year in central ky, sorry kiddos. Everything is pointing in that direction though….heard it here first….YAWN meter is off the charts now…..Old Man Winter is taking a break this year for whatever reason

    • Bjenks says:

      Bold prediction is correct. I say you are way off and we get hammered end of January into first half of Feb. Very similar set up to 2014 and 2015. Back end loaded winters. Will we have another in 2017? For now I am Yawning with you though.

  12. Mike says:

    Mid January and it feels like winter has never really started. A few cold days but lots of “oh well, another day of cool, gray and damp…” I am hoping for a change – I love winter weather – I love summer weather – I love spring and autumn… I love whatever season we are in… Not a fan of cool, gray and damp…

  13. Christopher says:

    Time to put away the sleds (and that darn generator I bought) and get out the goloshes and the umbrellas.
    I still have a feeling we’ll at least get one more good snow in CKY.

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