Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang.  It’s a very windy day across the bluegrass state with gusts approaching 50mph at times. These winds are ushering in a very volatile weather pattern for the days ahead.

I have no real changes on the potential as we roll forward. An arctic front will dive in here by Thursday night and Friday and hang out for a few days. Depending on exactly where that sets up will be the deciding factor on where the freezing rain sets up.

The trend of the Canadian and European Models continues to be a little colder for the entire weekend. The Canadian model now shows a pretty expansive area of freezing rain…


The temp trend on the European Model keeps that freezing line right on top of the region on and off through the weekend. Here’s Friday morning…


Here’s Saturday night…


The NAM only goes through Friday afternoon, but you can see some ice showing up on it…


The GFS continues to run slightly warmer than all other models. Here’s the total ice on that model through the weekend…


Again, we are walking a very fine line in terms of the all rain verses ice. Here’s hoping that 32 degree line stays well to our north.

I will throw you another update later today. Until then, let’s track those gusty showers across the region…

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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19 Responses to Tuesday Afternoon Update

  1. Rhonda says:

    I hate that “i” word. Hope it stays away! But…will we have any more snow? 🙂

  2. Kat says:

    Southern Indiana might be in t.r.o.u.b.l.e

    • Bjenks says:

      Chris did hint in a post a day or two ago that the models are not handling the depth of the cold. That fine white line could set up along the Parkways before said and done. Don’t put away the generators just yet.

  3. Matthew says:

    Going to have to run the generator some and make sure it is full of fresh gas. And get some extra. Very close look on that model there for me. And even missing my place it would put down enough for most around us here.

    The thing here is, Bailey himself always talks about the models underdoing the cold air. And that always seems the case with these setups. So if it is showing .25 ice for my area in the end I would not be surprised to see .5 or more. Just seems how these things work out. So I hope this does not work out. Let it be 40 and rain instead.

    Thanks for keeping us informed on this CB. Your insight and information is invaluable.

    • Prelude says:

      It’s not going to happen. No generators will be needed. There might be freezing rain but it’s not a ice storm even if the freezing rain occurs. Temperatures at best will be borderline for freezing rain.

  4. B H says:

    Even if you do not get freezing rain the ground is thawing out. With these high winds there will be some trees going over on the power lines. Some will be without power.

    • LD says:

      This person gets it. Even minimal freezing rain will have it’s impact amplified by the weakening of the trees or poles from this wind event preceding it.

  5. Terry says:

    Unless the Arctic air advances over 150 miles south than currently planned on most models, it should be a toasty January weekend for SE KY.

    • Prelude says:

      What are you talking about? Have you not been watching the weather??? Temperatures for SE Kentucky looking to go sub-zero starting and stay there tonight till early March.

      • Prelude says:

        Starting tonight. Even my phone refuses to put the lie out there. lol

        • Terry says:

          Lol…if that were the case, the kids would not go back to school and the Harlan Cable would not work for the next 8 + weeks. Yes, I am not kidding on the second part of the previous sentence. I literally had no Internet service for 5 days the year before last when the negative nights hit…their excuse was frozen lines; however, it is hit miss every month whether or not we have any real deal stormy weather!

  6. Clapp Landscaping says:

    I know a lot of people doesn’t like ice. But this has been a boring winter for me since I do snow removal so I am actually cheering for the ice. Looks like the Nam is colder because it looks to be about 50 miles south versus the other models which would be a big hit for the Louisville Metro area

  7. Adrian says:

    Will central Kentucky get ice Friday anyone know

  8. chris g in clay co says:

    Chris, will be following this very close. Could major impact plans for this weekend . Even tho im on southern ky, i hsve company coming down from southern indiana thurs night/ early friday.

    Thanks for the updates and all you do for us.

  9. Jimbo says:

    Even if it does cool down this weekend the warm wave is predicted to kick back in next week. This is typically the coldest two week stretch of the entire year. Once this warm wave runs out the clock on January, the days will be longer and the sun higher. And the Winter of 2017 will be another forgettable Winter.

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