Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. Winds… Those winds! Gusts topped out at 50mph in many locations today, causing power hits and outages. This is kicking off a wild period of weather across our part of the world.

You know my thoughts on it all, so I won’t bore you with a rehash.

I will show you how the WPC is now closely watching the potential for freezing rain on Friday. Here are the percentages of seeing freezing rain by different time periods on Friday…

wpc

wpc-2

wpc-3

That, at least, validates the concerns I’ve had now for several days. We are walking a very fine line with freezing rain from early Friday through early Sunday.

The American models seem to be playing catch up to this potential, as they have been too warm with temps compared to other models.

The NAM through Friday evening is starting to see this a little better…

nam-2

The GFS is farther south  that its earlier run, but remains the northward outlier…

gfs-snow-2

A degree or two difference will make all the difference between ice and just a very cold rain. Personally, I am cheering on the cold rain, but everyone in the weather world should be talking about the potential for some freezing rain. That’s a threat you just don’t downplay, but you don’t overplay. Just let the people know the options from 3 days out. It’s really that simple.

I see many of you are saying winter is over… On January 10th. I guess we learned nothing from the past 3 winters? 😉

I will update things later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.


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28 Responses to Tuesday Evening Update

  1. Isaiah Montgomery says:

    I’m hoping we see more out of this winter, not necessarily in the form of ice. The reason some people said it was over (my guess) is because the long term guidance had large Temp anomalies for most of the US.

  2. kywildcat says:

    Winter returns near the end of Jan, should be interesting in Feb

  3. Andrew says:

    It appears a potential ice storm is getting more likely for the Ohio Valley region this weekend

  4. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    Thanks Chris winds picking up here,thank you for always looking out for us.

  5. Christopher says:

    I see a February snowstorm in my crystal ball. Thanks cheis

  6. fbm tim says:

    ice for me i live in Athens oh?

  7. Teacher T says:

    Don’t think that I have ever heard wind like I’m hearing tonight!

  8. Bjenks says:

    IMO…This will be a bigger deal for most along both sides of the river as t
    he cold air wins out in that battle ground. Southern half of the state no biggie.

  9. Bjenks says:

    IMO…This will be a bigger deal for most along both sides of the river as t
    he cold air wins out in that battle ground. Southern half of the state no biggie.

  10. Bjenks says:

    Also, Looking back over the past, most of all, Jan thaws are followed by a cold and snowy pattern. With this being said we are currently in that up and down pattern. After the late Jan cold retreats we might be in for an early spring followed by a surprise snow in March. Winter is not even a month old give it a chance.

  11. Rolo says:

    Actually Bailey ur forcast for winter called for early spring and not much winter after Dec and early Jan.

    • Matthew says:

      At this point I hope he is right about February. One of my sons is early graduation and wants to get out on time as does my wife. She teaches and does not like snow days at all. If they can get through the next 2 weeks and February can actually turn out like Bailey first thought (not saying it will) it would be good for them.

      Definitely have to hope this ice stays north. I have heard people saying it is nothing. But given the WPC look and the possibility this hits farther south might want to be on the safe side. Can never hurt.

    • LD says:

      Shhhhh, don’t make the natives restless with facts. If they wanted to know what he said and when, there’s the nice calendar at the top of the page. It’s easier for people to remember what they want.

  12. LOUsnoluvr says:

    Interested to see how this works out Friday in Louisville. For now rain reallly coming down here and winds are howling! Thanks for all you do CB!

  13. corey says:

    Electric is out in greenup

    • TennMark says:

      A couple of areas around Nashville have lost power, especially south of downtown. Still have power…. for the moment anyway, but the lights have flickered a few times.

  14. MarkLex says:

    I’m so happy to live in a neighborhood where the power lines are under ground.

  15. Jimbo says:

    The Winter of 2015 was memorable and a late starter. It didn’t snow or really get cold till Valentines Day. Last year was a very tame Winter that will be remembered as bad because of one BIG storm. And that storm will be remembered for a long time, as it should be. But last year reminds me of the April 87 storm and the 93 Superstorm. Both occurred during years with virtually non existent Winters. So, yes there is a lot of time left. Hopefully for us snow lovers it will be another late starter.

  16. EF5snowfall says:

    The ice for southern ohio and possibly northern Kentucky is not being taken seriously.

  17. chris g in clay co says:

    Really want an all rain event. I had company coming in friday from southern indiana. Need all rain so they will make here and no ice delaying the trip.

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