Buckle Up For A Wild Weather Ride

Good Wednesday, folks. The overriding theme of the winter pattern has been one of extremes. Let’s take the past week for instance. We had thunderstorms that gave way to accumulating snows and 5 straight days of single digit lows somewhere across the state. This was followed up by 50mph winds and more thunderstorms. Again… that’s just the past week of weather.

I said last week this pattern would likely repeat through January and into February, and I see no reasons to doubt that. There’s not a whole lot about the weather that we can label as “normal” anymore.

Given this rinse and repeat pattern, let’s fire it back up for the days ahead. We have thunderstorms ready to give way to the potential for freezing rain for parts of the state.

Today will be very windy with gusts reaching greater than 40mph, again. Gusty showers and thunderstorms will develop as a warm front lifts to the north across the state…

Temps will be chilly this morning, but quickly rise behind this warm front. As a matter of fact, those readings will rise all night long and could be near 60 when you wake up Thursday morning.

Gusty showers and some thunderstorms will then sweep back in here ahead of an arctic front. How far south this front gets before slowing down is THE main factor in whether or not you get plain old rain or some periods of freezing rain. The Hi-Res NAM shows a good push of cold by Friday morning…

nam

Temps at or below freezing during this time would have some frozen precipitation.

Watch how the Hi-Res RPM model shows the axis of freezing rain trying to set up across the northern half of the state Friday into early Saturday…

rpm

The NAM is also hitting parts of the north during this same time…

nam-2

The Canadian Model is similar with the thermal profile, but has much less of a precipitation shield…

canadian

Look at those totals in Missouri and Kansas! Holy cow!

The GFS continues to be the warmest model, but has some healthy ice across the far north…

gfs-snow

As you can see, the farther north you live, the better the chance on some ice Friday into Saturday.

Once past this, expect a slow-moving cutoff low to develop across the Mississippi Valley. This will cause temps to surge again late Sunday into Monday. The flow with this is also a very wet one with repeat showers and thunderstorms into early next week. The GFS rainfall from today through next Tuesday…

gfs-rain

The pattern over the next few weeks is loaded with potential big cutoff lows. Those can bring some wild, wet and white weather with them. There is no shortage of action with this setup and it’s going to make for some very fun tracking.

I will hook you up with additional updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.


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18 Responses to Buckle Up For A Wild Weather Ride

  1. Terry says:

    I know a lot are not happy with the lack of true winter we have had so far; however in my opinion and preference, this current pattern we are stuck is still a lot better than months of sunny, boring, hot weather:)

    • BubbaG says:

      “True winter”, as in not much snow? It has been cold overall so far, so seems true enough 🙂

      Key seems the winter so far is playing like the CBs outlook, which did not have much snow. Would not be surprised to see weekly models show snow chances and we only get a few small snows- similar to what we got already.

      Still, does not take much for cold air to win out. Catch is ice might be the victor 🙁

    • Matthew says:

      I am fine with the pattern itself outside of the rain. Just the winter soggy mess is not good. Rather have snow in that case. Or save some rain for the dry periods. Too bad nature does not work that way.

      As for this winter it has been cold enough. We just missed out of the snow. Given normal we should have 18-26 inches or something like that around my parts. At least according to normal and then Bailey’s winter forecast. So far, 3 inches.

      But I am not a fan of the summer heat. I can put on a coat now and do my thing. I really do enjoy the spring/fall like temperatures of 60-75 degrees. That hot stuff is not great to me. I know some that like it a lot though.

    • Troy says:

      I’m sorry Terry but I would have to disagree with part of your statement. I will gladly take months of warm sunny days over the usual pattern of dry bitter cold followed by cold rain for 2-4 days, warm up for a day (with the rare ray of sunshine for the duration)…then rinse and repeat. I have truly gotten to the place that I despise winter because of this (other than the occasional snow).

  2. B H says:

    28 degrees at my house here in Southern Ohio this morning. Go 50 miles south of here and its 50.

  3. fbm tim says:

    not much to write home about with the possible ice?

  4. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Our weather is certainly not boring right now. But I would still love to see one big snow. Most if the folks I Roark with don’t agree with that but one good one would be very nice. I just hope we get a little more normal closer to spring and are not soaked all springtime long. Whatever happens we will take it and go
    on and count on Kentucky Weather to keep us informed! Have a great hump day everyone!

  5. Jason says:

    Thanks for the update Chris. When I got home yesterday evening (around 8:30) in Raceland the wind was really cranking up. Keep up the great work!

  6. LD says:

    I hope those models are all wrong as the only states who deserve to be hit with that much ice are North Carolia or Florida. Seems easy to imagine a Jack Frost type character with the face of Grayson Allen going around and tripping people wherever that ice falls.

    Literal monsoon rains last night. I’ve never seen anything like that in JANUARY in my lifetime. 85 year old neighbor confirms for her lifetime as well. Bizarre and extreme are the new normals and we’re stuck with it.

  7. fbm tim says:

    less than .20 of ice for my neck of the woods ill take it

  8. BengalFan says:

    Knowledge? What were the dates from the last 2 winters that central ky received the 3 big snows?

  9. retro fetch says:

    This is better than just cold, gray and blah with no snow. I’m hopeful that the pattern will shift and we’ll get at least one good snow.
    We may been spoiled by the last few years.
    As always thanks for the update, Chris!

  10. jim b says:

    You can put a fork in a significant snow coming this winter for central ky. The overall pattern is heading in wrong direction for that. Now, is there a chance we get lucky and have one of those late season snows that melts off in two days like we have had last couple of years, yes….but how boring is that?? Yawn meter a solid 10, and almost lost all hope haha. Being on spring!!!

    • Bjenks says:

      Jim b…..go to sleep and we will wake you when it snows. LOL.

      The chance is still there for several nice snow makers. As I said yesterday most all Jan thaws are followed by cold and snow.

  11. Lucy says:

    After this eight to ten days of warm temperatures and rain, do we go very cold and dry again?

  12. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Thelma Lou says spring blooms will be very early this year, only to have a killer frost nip em in the bud (pun intended).

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