Good Wednesday, folks. The overriding theme of the winter pattern has been one of extremes. Let’s take the past week for instance. We had thunderstorms that gave way to accumulating snows and 5 straight days of single digit lows somewhere across the state. This was followed up by 50mph winds and more thunderstorms. Again… that’s just the past week of weather.

I said last week this pattern would likely repeat through January and into February, and I see no reasons to doubt that. There’s not a whole lot about the weather that we can label as “normal” anymore.

Given this rinse and repeat pattern, let’s fire it back up for the days ahead. We have thunderstorms ready to give way to the potential for freezing rain for parts of the state.

Today will be very windy with gusts reaching greater than 40mph, again. Gusty showers and thunderstorms will develop as a warm front lifts to the north across the state…

Temps will be chilly this morning, but quickly rise behind this warm front. As a matter of fact, those readings will rise all night long and could be near 60 when you wake up Thursday morning.

Gusty showers and some thunderstorms will then sweep back in here ahead of an arctic front. How far south this front gets before slowing down is THE main factor in whether or not you get plain old rain or some periods of freezing rain. The Hi-Res NAM shows a good push of cold by Friday morning…

nam

Temps at or below freezing during this time would have some frozen precipitation.

Watch how the Hi-Res RPM model shows the axis of freezing rain trying to set up across the northern half of the state Friday into early Saturday…

rpm

The NAM is also hitting parts of the north during this same time…

nam-2

The Canadian Model is similar with the thermal profile, but has much less of a precipitation shield…

canadian

Look at those totals in Missouri and Kansas! Holy cow!

The GFS continues to be the warmest model, but has some healthy ice across the far north…

gfs-snow

As you can see, the farther north you live, the better the chance on some ice Friday into Saturday.

Once past this, expect a slow-moving cutoff low to develop across the Mississippi Valley. This will cause temps to surge again late Sunday into Monday. The flow with this is also a very wet one with repeat showers and thunderstorms into early next week. The GFS rainfall from today through next Tuesday…

gfs-rain

The pattern over the next few weeks is loaded with potential big cutoff lows. Those can bring some wild, wet and white weather with them. There is no shortage of action with this setup and it’s going to make for some very fun tracking.

I will hook you up with additional updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.